20170918-USDA-USDA_Livestock,_Dairy,_and_Poultry_Outlook_2017.09.18_25页_1mb

报告摘要

Summary of Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook (LDP-M-279, Sept. 18, 2017)

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the U.S. livestock, dairy, and poultry markets for the period January-July 2017 and outlooks for 2017 and 2018. It includes detailed analysis on production, trade, prices, and market trends across different segments of the industry.

Main Points

Red Meat and Dairy Imports

Red meat and dairy imports for January-July 2017 were mostly lower than the same period in 2016.
Beef imports decreased by 4.3%, primarily due to increased domestic production and lower Oceania output.
Pork imports were only 0.6% lower, with Canada and Mexico as the main suppliers.
Lamb imports increased by 14%, driven by lower domestic production, with Australia being the main source.
Dairy imports on a milk-fat basis dropped by 18%, mainly due to lower cheese imports, with the European Union as the primary supplier.

Cattle/Beef

2017 commercial beef production is forecast at 26.6 billion pounds, a 140 million-pound reduction from the previous forecast, due to slower marketing pace for fed cattle.
2018 beef production is expected to be lower as steer and heifer slaughter will likely decrease.
Feeder steer prices for the fourth quarter are forecast at $140.00-$146.00/cwt, with a seasonal rebound expected in the first quarter of 2018 to $110.00-$120.00/cwt.
Cattle imports in July increased by 36,000 head or 44%, with Mexico and Canada contributing significantly.
2017 and 2018 cattle import forecasts were revised upwards to 1.715 million head and 1.740 million head, respectively.

Dairy

Milk production in 2017 is forecast at 216.0 billion pounds, a 0.3 billion-pound increase from the previous forecast.
Milk cow numbers for 2017 are forecast at 9.395 million, a 5,000-head reduction from last month.
Milk per cow is forecast at 22,980 pounds, reflecting stronger yields.
Dairy product prices are mostly lower for 2017, with cheddar cheese being an exception, showing a price increase.
Butter prices have declined due to lower export growth, and NDM and SMP prices have also fallen.
Class III milk price is forecast at $16.05-$16.25 per cwt, and Class IV milk price is at $15.40-$15.70 per cwt, both lower than last month.
All-milk price for 2017 is $17.70-$17.90 per cwt, a decrease from the previous forecast.
2018 dairy forecasts show lower production and higher ending stocks, with cheddar cheese and dry whey prices also expected to decline.
Butter and NDM prices are projected to be lower in 2018 due to high stocks and lower export expectations.
The Margin Protection Program (MPP-Dairy) enrollment period for 2018 coverage ended on December 15, 2017.

Pork/Hogs

Third and fourth quarter pork production in 2017 are expected to be record highs, with third-quarter at 6.3 billion pounds and fourth-quarter at 7 billion pounds.
New slaughter capacity in the Midwest (Coldwater, MI and Sioux City, IA) is expected to reduce price pressure in the fourth quarter.
Pork exports in August dropped by 4%, mainly due to lower shipments to China/Hong Kong (-53%).
China's pork imports declined in July by 52% year-over-year, but remain at historically high levels, reflecting rebound in domestic production.
Domestic feeder pig prices have declined in August, and live hog prices have also tightened.

Poultry

Broiler production for the third and fourth quarters is reduced due to lower demand.
Egg prices are increased for the remainder of the year due to price strength.
Turkey production is increased for the third quarter, with a lower price forecast for 2017.

Special Article: On Different Trajectories – Cow's Milk and Plant-Based Milk Analogs

Plant-based milk analogs are more expensive than cow's milk.
Market shares have increased for almond beverages, decreased for soy beverages, and increased for other types of milk analogs.
Household scanner data from Information Resources, Inc. (IRI) highlights the growing popularity of plant-based alternatives.

Key Information

Imports across red meat and dairy were mostly lower in 2017 compared to 2016, with lamb and dairy imports being exceptions.
Production forecasts for 2017 show increased milk production and record-high pork output, but lower beef and lamb production.
Price trends indicate declines in dairy and beef products, with cheddar cheese and feeder steers being exceptions.
Market dynamics such as supply and demand, currency fluctuations, and weather conditions have influenced trade flows and prices.
The Margin Protection Program is an important tool for dairy producers to manage price volatility.

Tables and Reports

Red Meat and Poultry and Dairy Forecast tables are included.
The next Outlook Report is scheduled for October 18, 2017.
Tables will be released on September 27, 2017.
The Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report is set to be released on September 28, 2017.