20170315-USDA-Livestock,_Dairy,_and_Poultry_Outlook_2017.03.15_23页_668kb

报告摘要

Summary of Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook (LDP-M-273, Mar.15,2017)

Core Content Overview

This report provides an outlook for the U.S. livestock, dairy, and poultry sectors for 2017, covering production, prices, exports, and market trends. It includes forecasts for red meat and poultry disappearance, dairy production and prices, and updates on pork and hog markets. The report also highlights the impact of external factors such as weather, international demand, and the U.S. dollar's strength on these markets.

Key Trends and Forecasts

Red Meat and Poultry Disappearance

Per capita disappearance of red meats and poultry is projected to be 217.2 pounds per person in 2017, up 2.6 pounds from 2016.
Red meats (beef, pork, veal, lamb) are expected to account for 51.1% of total disappearance, while poultry will account for 49.9%.
Poultry production is expected to grow by 2%, but beef and pork production are forecast to increase by 4.1% and 4.7%, respectively.

Cattle and Beef

Beef production forecast for 2017 was adjusted upward, while exports showed strength.
Feeder cattle prices have seen a slow rebound but stalled in recent months.
First-quarter 2017 feeder cattle prices are expected to range from $127.00 to $131.00 per cwt, up $1.20 from the fourth quarter of 2016.
Cutter cow prices are forecast to be $60.00 to $61.00 per cwt for the first quarter of 2017.
Retail choice beef prices increased slightly in early 2017, but remain 22 cents per pound lower than year-earlier levels.
Beef imports in January 2017 declined 21% compared to 2016, with Australia, New Zealand, and Canada showing the largest drops. Mexico and Nicaragua increased imports by 53% and 23%, respectively.
Beef exports in the first quarter of 2017 are forecast to be 635 million pounds, up 10 million pounds from the previous forecast, driven by strong sales to Japan, South Korea, and Mexico.
Beef export forecast for 2017 is 2.7 billion pounds, with Mexico expected to remain the largest export destination.

Dairy

Milk production for 2017 is forecast to be 217.5 billion pounds, up 0.1 billion pounds from the previous estimate.
Milk cow numbers in January 2017 reached 9.380 million head, up 10,000 head from the previous forecast.
Butter prices are forecast to be $2.120 to $2.210 per pound, up due to increased demand.
Cheddar cheese prices are expected to be $1.645 to $1.705 per pound, down due to weak demand and high stocks.
Nonfat dry milk (NDM) prices are forecast to be $0.925 to $0.975 per pound, reflecting lower export expectations and falling spot prices.
Dry whey prices are forecast to rise to $0.495 to $0.525 per pound, driven by strong demand for whey protein products.
Class III and IV milk prices are forecast to be $16.60 to $17.20 per cwt and $14.85 to $15.55 per cwt, respectively, reflecting the balance between NDM price declines and butter price increases.
USDA recommended decision to establish a California Federal Milk Marketing Order was announced, with public comments accepted until May 15, 2017.

Pork and Hogs

Pork production in the first quarter of 2017 is forecast to be 6.4 billion pounds, 3% higher than the same period in 2016.
Pork prices are expected to decline in the second quarter, due to increased supply and lower carcass weights.
Pork exports in January 2017 reached 458 million pounds, up 19.6% from 2016, with Mexico and South Korea showing strong growth.
Pork exports for 2017 are forecast to be 5.7 billion pounds, 8% higher than 2016, with 21.7% of production expected to be exported.
Domestic demand for pork remains robust, with ending stocks in January 16% lower than the previous year.

Poultry

Broiler production in January 2017 was 3.5 billion pounds, up 2% year-over-year.
Broiler slaughter has increased, with lightest and heaviest weight birds showing 16% and 13% declines in year-to-date slaughter, respectively.
Broiler exports in January 2017 reached 556 million pounds, up 12% from 2016, with South Africa and Peru showing notable growth.
Egg production was revised upward for the period December 2014 to December 2016, and table-egg layer flock numbers increased by 4 million birds as of January 1, 2017.

Main Points

Red meat and poultry disappearance increased in 2017, with red meats slightly outpacing poultry.
Cattle and beef markets showed stable prices despite increased production and export activity.
Dairy markets experienced mixed price trends, with butter and dry whey prices rising, while cheddar cheese and nonfat dry milk prices fell.
Pork demand remained strong in early 2017, with higher production and export volumes.
Weather and drought in the Southwest and Southern Plains impacted cattle grazing and feedlot placements.
U.S. dollar strength influenced export competitiveness, particularly for dairy and pork products.
Avian influenza in Tennessee affected some poultry exports, but the impact was limited to a small portion of U.S. broiler meat.

Key Data and Figures

Red meat and poultry disappearance per capita: 217.2 pounds in 2017.
Beef export forecast for 2017: 2.7 billion pounds.
Pork export forecast for 2017: 5.7 billion pounds.
Dairy production forecast for 2017: 217.5 billion pounds.
Milk cow numbers in January 2017: 9.380 million head.
Broiler exports in January 2017: 556 million pounds, up 12% from 2016.
Egg production revision: 4 million more birds in the table-egg layer flock as of January 1, 2017.