世界银行-赞比亚_国家私营部门诊断（英）-2025.1_97页_12mb

Zambia Country Private Sector Diagnostic Summary

This report examines opportunities for attracting private investment in four key sectors: mining of copper and other critical minerals, solar power generation, agribusiness (maize, soya, wheat), and tourism. The goal is to drive inclusive and sustainable economic growth. Below is a concise summary of key findings and recommendations:

Key Economic Context

• Zambia’s economy relies heavily on copper mining (accounting for ≈70% of export earnings and 44% of government revenue).
• The country is emerging from a debt crisis and focuses on reforms to stabilize macroeconomy and improve business climate.
• Foreign direct investment (FDI) is resuming, projected to reach 3.9% of GDP in 2024, though policy uncertainty remains a barrier to sustained investment.

Sector Opportunities and Challenges

1. Mining of Copper and Energy Transition Minerals

• Opportunities: Zambia is Africa’s second-largest copper producer. Expansion potential exists for copper exports, with support from global demand for energy transition minerals like manganese and nickel.
• Challenges: Frequent policy changes, unclear tax regulation (modified 11x in 19 years), complex licensing, insufficient geological data, and power/transport infrastructure gaps.
• Recommendations: Clarify tax and licensing frameworks; improve geological surveys; streamline land acquisition; strengthen environmental and social governance (ESG).

2. Solar Power Generation

• Opportunities: Solar PV is cost-effective (cheaper than coal and flexible supply). Zambia’s growing electricity demand (driven by mining and residential use) necessitates diversification from hydropower.
• Challenges: ZESCO’s weak finances, unclear transmission charges, regulatory delays, and grid infrastructure limitations hinder private investment.
• Recommendations: Update the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP); implement open grid access; unbundling ZESCO’s operations; improve financial governance and incentives for independent power producers (IPPs).

3. Agribusiness (Maize, Soya, Wheat)

• Opportunities: High demand for maize (up to 4.3 million MT by 2030), soya, and wheat. Zambian farms yield at near-global levels (irrigated farms reach 10 MT/ha for maize).
• Challenges: Ineffective subsidies (FISP), land acquisition complexity, export bans, and limited access to finance constrain production.
• Recommendations: Transition FISP to an e-voucher system; simplify land laws; revise export bans; improve infrastructure (roads, irrigation, power) to support commercial farming.

4. Tourism (Nature-Based and Conference Tourism)

• Opportunities: Strong potential for growth in NBT and MICE (Meetings, Incentives, Conferences, Exhibitions), driven by rich wildlife and stable politics.
• Challenges: Insufficient air connectivity, complex tourism licensing, lack of branding, and job shortages in skilled sectors.
• Recommendations: Establish a Convention Bureau; simplify and harmonize tourism licenses; improve air transport and ICT infrastructure; strengthen protected area management.

Conclusions and Recommendations

• Government Actions are central to unlocking these opportunities. Key reforms include implementing a stable policy framework, improving public service delivery, enhancing transparency, and investing in critical infrastructure (power, transportation, water).
• Addressing constraints:
  • Policy predictability to build investor confidence.
  • Strengthened electricity market regulations (e.g., grid access, transparent tariffs).
  • revamped agricultural subsidies with better targeting.
  • Streamlined land and tourism licensing processes.

The implementation of these recommendations could attract significant private investment, generate up to $21 billion in cumulative investment by 2030, create ≈250,000 jobs, and support Zambia’s broader development goals.