2025-05-22-Jefferies-城市服饰（URBN）_URBN第一季度业绩强劲；我们对Urban_Outfitters前景仍持谨慎态度_10页_268kb

Urban Outfitters (URBN) faced mixed conditions in its Q1 results, with comps turning positive for the first time in 11 quarters, but North American sales declining by 4% while European and ROW sales rose by 14%. The company beat earnings and revenue estimates, with strong gross margins and operating performance driven by its core brands. However, concerns persist regarding promotional pressures, digital sales in North America, and increased competition. The investment thesis remains cautious, with an UNDERPERFORM rating. The price target was initially $59.60 but adjusted to $50 for 2027 based on revised guidance and risks, reflecting a blended valuation using 10x PE and 4x EV/EBITDA. Key risks include NA market headwinds, potential margin compression from markdowns, and a bumpy core turnaround, while catalysts include managed inventory growth and potential margin expansion. The long-term view shows a range from significant upside to sharp downside scenarios by 2027, influenced by demographic shifts, competition, and management strategies.