2025-06-11-花旗集团-北欧经济_挪威焦点_挪威银行不急于降息_12页_223kb

Summary of Norway Economic Analysis (June 12, 2025)

Based on Citigroup's report "(Norges Bank Not in a Rush to Cut)", here is the analysis:

1. Economic Resilience:

   • Norwegian economic data shows surprising resilience, suggesting growth is holding up strongly despite higher US tariffs and record-high policy rates (currently 4.50%).
   • The Citigroup RNR survey indicates positive mainland GDP growth (0.4% quarter-on-quarter) and there are no compelling reasons for the Norges Bank to hasten rate cuts into the upcoming June meeting. Construction, an interest-rate-sensitive sector, is also reportedly recovering.

2. Policy Rate Outlook:

   • Inflation is easing but still above targeted levels (Core CPI-ATE below Norges Bank forecasts by ~0.30ppt; headline CPI expected to fall from ~3.0% to ~2.0% by year-end).
   • Concerns about sticky wage growth (expected to remain high around 4.5% annually) could delay a slowdown in services inflation towards year-end.
   • Consequently, unless inflation falls faster or US tariff effects materialize sooner than expected, the Norges Bank is expected to keep policy rates unchanged at the upcoming meeting. The first rate cuts are anticipated to begin in September 2025, likely in a small (25bps) batch over 2025, potentially followed by another two 25bps cuts (spotting 4 cuts in total for the year).
   • Target for the end-2026 policy rate is 3.25%.

3. Key Growth Drivers and Inflation Factors:

   • Strong domestic demand supports growth, partly offsetting slower export growth (FX sensitivity lower due to increased domestic role). Private consumption, house prices (though moderating recently), and employment (despite undershooting central bank expectations) are all providing growth tailwinds.
   • Fiscal stimulus, provided through the Norwegian Spring/ Budget, will add to growth support (estimated to add 1.3ppt to GDP). Norway possesses vast fiscal space under its deficit rule due to a rising sovereign pension fund.
   • A weaker NOK supports export competitiveness.
   • Disposable-income growth remains strong, while services and wage inflation remain elevated, though wages slowed marginally further.

4. External Factors:

   • The krone likely trades at a wide discount due to large interest differentials foreseen by the report, potentially setting the stage for NOK appreciation later this year.

In conclusion, while growth appears robust and inflation is expected to decelerate moderately over the next three months, the Norges Bank will resist easing policy at its June meeting due to growth resilience and relatively high inflation/outlook, pushing the first cuts into 2025's second half.

Forecasts are conditional on the balance of economic risks and inflation trajectory.