20180117-USDA-USDA_Feed_Outlook_2018.01.17_22页_1mb

Feed Outlook Summary

Core Content Overview

This report provides a comprehensive outlook for U.S. and global feed grain markets for the 2017/18 marketing year. It highlights changes in production, supply, use, and prices for corn, sorghum, barley, and oats, as well as international trade and consumption trends.

U.S. Domestic Outlook

Corn Supply and Use

• Total Supply: Projected at 16,947 million bushels, the highest ever, up 5.3 million bushels from the previous year.
• Beginning Stocks: Reduced slightly to 2,293 million bushels, the highest since 1988/89.
• Production: 14,604 million bushels, the second highest ever, driven by a record yield of 176.6 bushels per acre.
• Feed and Residual Use: Reduced by 25 million bushels to 2,298 million bushels, based on lower disappearance.
• Food, Seed, and Industrial (FSI) Use: Increased by 10 million bushels due to strong first-quarter glucose and dextrose production.
• Ending Stocks: Raised to 2,477 million bushels, up 39.9 million from last month.
• Average Price: Increased to $3.25 per bushel, up $0.05 from the previous estimate.

Sorghum Supply and Use

• Production: Projected at 363.8 million bushels, down 8.2 million from last month.
• Supply: 399.3 million bushels, up 8.1 million from last month, due to a yield increase of 1.7 bushels per acre.
• Use: Increased by 5 million bushels to 173.2 million bushels, based on higher first-quarter utilization.
• Ending Stocks: 33.5 million bushels, up 0.1 million from last month.
• Average Price: Raised to $3.15 per bushel, up $0.05 from the previous estimate.

Barley and Oats

• Barley:

  • Feed and Residual Use: Reduced by 0.08 million bushels to 38.9 million bushels.
  • Ending Stocks: Increased to 61.3 million bushels, the lowest since 2011.
  • Average Price: Unchanged at $4.50 per bushel, with a narrowed price range to $4.15–$4.85 per bushel.

• Oats:

  • Ending Stocks: Increased to 29.7 million bushels, the lowest since 2013.
  • Average Price: Unchanged at $2.50 per bushel, with a narrowed price range to $2.35–$2.65 per bushel.

International Outlook

Global Coarse Grain Production

• Total Production: Projected at 1,324.2 million tons, up 0.3 million tons from last month.
• U.S. Production: 384.3 million tons, up 0.9 million tons, contributing to the global increase.
• Foreign Production: Down 0.6 million tons to 940.0 million tons, with reductions in several countries.

Global Coarse Grain Use

• Total Use: Projected at 1,352.2 million tons, down 1.8 million tons from last month.
• Key Changes:
  • Iran: Reduced feed and residual use by 1.0 million tons (0.7 million in corn and 0.3 million in barley).
  • Saudi Arabia: Reduced barley use by 0.5 million tons.
  • Australia: Reduced barley and oats use by 0.3 million tons.
  • Ukraine: Increased barley exports by 0.2 million tons.

Global Ending Stocks

• Total Ending Stocks: Projected at 233.8 million tons, up 1.5 million tons.
• Foreign Ending Stocks: Up 0.4 million tons to 168.4 million tons.
• Corn Ending Stocks: Up 1.5 million tons to 143.7 million tons.
• Barley Ending Stocks: Down 0.9 million tons to 16.6 million tons.
• Rye Ending Stocks: Down 0.2 million tons due to adjustments in Russia.

U.S. Corn Exports

• Exports: Unchanged at 1,925 million bushels for the 2017/18 marketing year.
• International Trade Year (Oct-Sep): Projected at 48.5 million tons, down 7.0 million tons (12.7%) from the previous year.
• Price Competitiveness: U.S. corn remains competitive on a FOB basis despite competition from Brazil and Argentina.
• Currency Impact: The U.S. dollar has weakened against other exporters' currencies, improving U.S. competitiveness.

Key Trends and Adjustments

• Record Yields: U.S. corn yield reached a record 176.6 bushels per acre, contributing to higher production.
• Supply Increase: Despite a small decline in beginning stocks, the overall supply is at a record high.
• Use Adjustments: Total use decreased by 15 million bushels, primarily due to reduced feed and residual use.
• Global Market Dynamics: Brazil and Argentina remain strong competitors, but U.S. corn benefits from a weaker dollar.
• International Trade Adjustments: Brazil, Russia, and Argentina saw changes in production and exports, with some countries adjusting their forecasts based on trade data and currency fluctuations.

Supporting Data and Visuals

• Figures:

  • Figure 1: Corn supply and use percent change from previous forecast.
  • Figure 2: U.S. corn utilization.
  • Figure 3: U.S. corn harvested area and yield.
  • Figure 4: U.S. corn feed and residual use.
  • Figure 5: Monthly U.S. corn exports.
  • Figure 6: Fuel ethanol exports.
  • Figure 7: U.S. corn prices.
  • Maps A, B1, B2, C1, C2, D: Visual representations of changes in production, use, and trade.

• Tables:

  • Table A1 and A2: Summary of global and U.S. coarse grain production changes.
  • Table D: Coarse grain trade changes by country.
  • Table 1: U.S. quarterly supply and disappearance for corn and sorghum.

Contacts and Resources

• Contact:

  • Tom Capehart (domestic): tcapehart@ers.usda.gov
  • Olga Liefert (international): oliefert@ers.usda.gov

• Subscription:

  • ERS e-mail notification service: Subscribe here
  • Printed copies available from USDA Order Desk: Call 1-800-363-2068

• Data and Reports:

  • Feed Grains Database: Contains monthly, quarterly, and annual data on prices, supply, and use.
  • Related websites: Mann Library Feed Outlook, WASDE, Grain Circular, and ERS Corn Topic page.

Summary of Key Figures

Conclusion

The U.S. feed grain outlook for 2017/18 shows a record supply for corn and sorghum, driven by strong production and favorable yields. Despite a slight reduction in total use, the projected ending stocks are the highest ever, indicating a surplus. U.S. corn exports remain stable, supported by a weaker dollar and competitive FOB pricing. International trade and consumption trends reflect adjustments in several major producing and consuming countries, with notable changes in Brazil, Argentina, and Iran. The report emphasizes the importance of ongoing monitoring of production, use, and trade dynamics to assess market stability and future outlook.