20170814-USDA-USDA_Feed_Outlook_2017.08.14_21页_1mb

Summary of the 2017/18 U.S. Feed Outlook

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the U.S. and global feed grain outlook for the 2017/18 marketing year, highlighting changes in production, use, and trade.

U.S. Domestic Outlook

• Corn Production: Projected at 14,153 million bushels, a 1.2-bushel decrease per acre from last month's estimate. This is the third-highest corn production on record, following the 2016 and 2014 crops.
• Corn Yield: The 2017/18 corn yield is forecast at 169.5 bushels per acre, down from the previous month.
• Corn Use: Feed and residual use for corn is reduced by 25 million bushels to 5,450 million bushels, with total use at 14.3 billion bushels.
• Corn Exports: Projected down by 25 million bushels to 1.85 billion bushels. U.S. exports are expected to be lower due to increased competition from Brazil, Argentina, and Ukraine.
• Corn Price: The projected average price received by farmers remains unchanged at $3.30 per bushel.
• Sorghum Production: Increased by 2.6 bushels per acre to 69.6 bushels, leading to a 13.4 million-bushel rise in production to 369.4 million bushels.
• Sorghum Exports: Raised by 10 million bushels to 210 million bushels, driven by increased demand from China.
• Sorghum Use: Total use is projected at 370 million bushels, up from the previous month.
• Sorghum Ending Stocks: Increased by 3.4 million bushels to 52.3 million bushels.
• Barley Production: Reduced by 1.4 bushels per acre to 72.1 bushels, with total production at 108 million bushels.
• Barley Price: Projected at a range of $4.90 to $5.90 per bushel, with a midpoint of $5.40, down 15 cents from the previous month.
• Oats Production: Increased by 0.05 million bushels to 53.7 million bushels, with supply raised by 206.2 million bushels.
• Oats Disappearance: Unchanged at 172.0 million bushels, leading to an increase in ending stocks to 34.2 million bushels.
• Oats Price: Projected at $2.35 to $2.85 per bushel, with a midpoint of $2.60, up 20 cents from the previous month.
• Hay Production: Reduced by 31.9 million tons to 132.7 million tons, with alfalfa hay and other hay production also reduced.

International Outlook

• World Coarse Grain Production: Projected down by 2.3 million tons to 1,314.2 million tons, with the U.S. accounting for most of the decline.
• Foreign Coarse Grain Production: Slightly unchanged, with increases in Ukraine, Zimbabwe, and Russia offsetting declines in the EU and Canada.
• Foreign Corn Production: Reduced by 0.8 million tons to 674.0 million tons, but offset by increased output of barley, rye, and millet.
• Foreign Corn Trade: Increased by 1.9 million tons, with Brazil, Ukraine, and Argentina leading the growth.
• U.S. Corn Exports: Reduced by 0.5 million tons to 47.0 million tons, as competition from Southern Hemisphere countries intensifies.
• U.S. Corn Export Share: Projected to be 13 percent of total production, significantly lower than previous years.
• Global Corn Use: Projected slightly lower at 1,349.3 million tons, with major changes in feed and residual use from Iran, Ukraine, and Russia.
• Global Corn Trade: Increased to 144.7 million tons, with Ukrainian exports up 1.0 million tons and Brazilian exports down 1.0 million tons.

Key Trends

• The U.S. remains the largest producer and exporter of corn, though its share in global corn exports is declining.
• Brazil, Argentina, and Ukraine are now the largest corn exporters after the U.S., with higher export shares despite lower production volumes.
• The U.S. is also the leading producer and exporter of sorghum, with a 15-20 percent share of global production and 70 percent of global exports.
• The EU and Russia dominate global barley and oats production, while India, Nigeria, and Niger lead in millet production.
• The U.S. has the highest beginning stocks for feed grains, at 2,295 million bushels, with total supply at the second-highest on record.

Summary of Major Changes

Conclusion

The U.S. feed grain outlook for 2017/18 shows a slight decline in corn production and exports, while sorghum production and exports are on the rise. Global production trends are mixed, with the U.S. experiencing a reduction in output but being offset by increased production in other regions. The U.S. continues to lead in corn and sorghum production and exports, but its share in global trade is decreasing due to strong competition from other countries.