2025-06-05-Jefferies-中国饼干市场回顾_亿滋在承压品类中获取市场份额_10页_460kb

China Biscuits Market Overview

• Market Decline: China tracked-channel biscuits sales fell ~15% y/y in Mar/Apr 2025, driving mainly from sales and price pressure, with volumes down ~13% y/y (steepest drop). Pricing declined ~2% y/y, continuing a downward trend.

MDLZ Performance

• Market Share Growth: Despite overall declines, Mondelez (MDLZ) gained ~90bps in dollar share and ~60bps in volume share y/y, outperforming peers.
• Q1 Growth: Recorded +1.8% organic growth in AMEA with volumes declining ~% and prices rising %.
• Future Outlook: Expected HSD% y/y growth, expanding distribution, implying actual growth may be higher than tracked channels suggest.

Peer Comparison

• Competitors like Glico, Jiashili, and Dali saw significant declines in volume (-~15% to ~19%).
• Orion and Nabati also experienced substantial drops, highlighting increased competitive pressure.

Analyst Insights

• Risks include organic growth deceleration, margin pressure from commodity costs, and potential market share erosion.
• Jefferies maintains a Hold rating with a price target reflecting P/E multiple.

Key Data Trends

Table: China Biscuit Sales, Volume, Price Y/Y%

Source: Jefferies Research, NielsenIQ

Strategic Actions by MDLZ

• Expanding distribution and launching baked snacks in China to capture growth beyond tracked biscuits.
• Mgmt View: Chinese consumer tastes operate at a current low, slowly improving; suggesting potential for recovery.

References

• Analysts: Scott Marks (Equity Analyst) and Natasha Baker (Equity Associate).
• Data Source: NielsenIQ tracked channels, showing partial under-representation due to MDLZ's broader product expansion.