世界咖啡市场展望-英-39页_1mb

Coffee Report and Outlook 2022/23 Summary

This report, published by the International Coffee Organization (ICO), provides an analysis of global coffee market dynamics for the coffee years 2021/22 and 2022/23. It introduces a new methodology for calculating production and consumption, addresses data limitations, and outlines future outlooks.

Key Findings on Production

• World coffee production decreased by 1.4% in 2021/22 to 168.5 million 60-kg bags, primarily due to off-biennial production in Brazil and adverse weather. It is expected to rebound by 1.7% in 2022/23.
• Arabica coffee saw a 7.2% drop in 2021/22 but is projected to increase by 4.6% in 2022/23, with its share of total production rising to 57.5%.
• South America remains the largest producer but experienced a 7.6% decline in 2021/22 due to weather and biennial cycles. Production is expected to grow by 6.2% in 2022/23.
• Regional shares shifted, with Asia-Pacific gaining market share at the expense of South America.

Key Findings on Consumption

• Global coffee consumption increased by 4.2% in 2021/22, rebounding from COVID-19 restrictions and driven by economic recovery.
• Growth is expected to decelerate to 1.7% in 2022/23 due to slowing global growth and rising living costs.
• Europe and North America are mature markets with stable but slower growth, while Africa and Asia-Pacific show higher potential for expansion.
• Consumption per capita is highest in Europe and North America compared to global averages.

Methodology and Data Updates

• A new formula incorporating imports into domestic consumption calculations better reflects modern coffee industry dynamics.
• The report addresses underestimation in production data due to missing data from non-member origins and cross-border trades, with potential impacts on global market equilibrium.

Outlook for 2022/23

• Production is expected to grow by 1.7%, driven by biennial effects in Brazil, offset by inflation and weather challenges.
• Consumption is forecast to increase by 1.7%, with stronger growth from producers versus non-producers.
• Deceleration in key regions like Europe and Africa is predicted, while immature markets continue to grow.

For detailed data and regional analyses, refer to the full report available on the ICO website.