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OECD Supply Chain Resilience Review Summary

Core Content

The OECD Supply Chain Resilience Review: Navigating Risks is a comprehensive report that examines the current state of global supply chains and the role of policy in enhancing their resilience. It highlights the need for a balanced approach to managing supply chain risks, ensuring that the benefits of global trade are preserved while addressing vulnerabilities.

Main Views

1. Supply Chain Resilience and Global Trade

• Supply chain resilience is not about eliminating risk, but about effectively navigating it.
• International trade remains a powerful driver of economic growth and development.
• Global supply chains have significantly contributed to poverty reduction and GDP growth, especially in less developed countries.

2. Trade Flows and Concentration Trends

• Most global trade flows are relatively diversified, but there are increasing trends toward over-concentration.
• Approximately 30% of exported products are sourced from a small number of trading partners.
• Import concentration is rising, with countries sourcing from fewer suppliers than globally possible.
• The number of cases of suboptimal diversification has increased by 50% since the late 1990s.

3. Sectoral and National Vulnerabilities

• Certain sectors and countries are more exposed to supply chain shocks, particularly those with strong vertical linkages to major foreign economies.
• Strategic manufacturing sectors (e.g., petroleum, electronics) are highly exposed to foreign product inputs and final demand.
• In the OECD, 26% of inputs for strategic manufacturing industries are sourced abroad, and 27% of output depends on foreign demand.

4. Relocalisation and Economic Impact

• Relocalising supply chains can lead to significant GDP declines and more variable output for most countries.
• The report suggests that relocalisation does not consistently improve resilience and may undermine global trade benefits.

5. Digital Transformation and Environmental Policies

• The digital transformation and environmental sustainability policies are reshaping supply chains, offering both opportunities and vulnerabilities.
• These policies can enhance efficiency, resilience, and sustainability, but also create new risks due to emerging regulations and sustainability requirements.

6. Policy Recommendations for Resilience

• Governments should promote trade facilitation policies to reduce trade frictions and create stable regulatory frameworks.
• Strengthen key supply chain service sectors by removing market access barriers and promoting regulatory interoperability.
• Facilitate digitalisation of supply chains through reduced tariffs on ICT goods and streamlined regulations.
• Encourage international cooperation and coordination with the private sector to set rules and reduce regulatory heterogeneity.
• Design policies that balance sustainability, efficiency, and resilience, considering trade-offs and the broader economic impact.

Key Information

• Trade Facilitation Indicators (TFI) and Services Trade Restrictiveness Index (STRI) are used to assess the policy environment.
• Country-by-country data is provided to monitor interdependencies and policy preparedness.
• Digital trade integration and openness are increasing due to international regulatory cooperation.
• China has become a major contributor to import concentration, increasing its share from 5% to 30% over the past 25 years.
• OECD countries have seen a decline in their combined contribution to import concentration from 30% to 15%.
• Non-OECD countries are primarily responsible for the trend of significant import concentration.

Supporting Data and Analysis

• Trade concentration is measured using import and export data.
• Digital transformation is linked to changes in supply chain efficiency and sustainability.
• Environmental goods and critical raw materials (CRMs) are central to the analysis, with data showing that CRMs are produced by a few countries and subject to export restrictions.
• Modelling shows that relocalisation could decrease global trade by over 18% and real GDP by over 5%, with no consistent improvement in resilience.

Conclusion

The report concludes that while supply chain resilience is essential, it must be pursued in a way that supports the benefits of open markets. It advocates for a balanced and evidence-based approach to policy-making, emphasizing agility, adaptability, and alignment across the public and private sectors. The OECD continues to monitor and support the development of resilient, efficient, and sustainable global supply chains.

Key Figures and Tables

• Figure 1.1: Shows that greater participation in international trade is associated with higher GDP growth in less developed countries.
• Figure 1.2: Highlights variation in countries' exposure to supply chain shocks.
• Figure 1.3: Demonstrates the potential GDP decline and output variability under a localised supply chain scenario.
• Figure 1.4: Indicates that labor-related supply chain laws may cover nearly half of global production.
• Table 6.1: Suggests that closing the STRI gap with best-performing countries by half could lead to significant reductions in trade costs.

Annexes

• Annex A: A guide to using country-by-country data for assessing supply chain interdependencies.
• Annex B: Provides country-by-country data on trade flows and supply chain structures.

References and Notes

• The report includes references to various OECD and international databases and indicators.
• It acknowledges the contribution of multiple stakeholders, including the OECD Trade Committee, BIAC, TUAC, and external experts.
• Notes address geopolitical considerations and the status of certain territories.

Legal and Licensing Information

• The report is published under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) licence.
• Users must cite the original work and ensure proper attribution when using translations or adaptations.
• The use of the OECD logo or cover image requires express permission.

Final Remarks

The OECD Supply Chain Resilience Review is a critical resource for policymakers, businesses, and researchers seeking to understand and enhance the resilience of global supply chains. It underscores the importance of international cooperation, digital transformation, and balanced policy frameworks in navigating the complex and evolving landscape of global trade.