世界银行-马尔代夫国家气候与发展报告（英）-2024.6-93页_5mb

Country Climate and Development Report Summary: Maldives

The Maldives has achieved significant economic growth over the past two decades, with high GDP per capita in South Asia, improved human capital, and substantial reductions in poverty. However, the country faces high public debt (123% of GDP in 2023) and limited fiscal buffers, raising concerns about servicing debt and financing climate-related investments.

Climate change poses existential threats, primarily through sea level rise (SLR) and ocean warming. SLR, averaging 4 mm annually since 1992, could accelerate under severe warming scenarios, potentially causing a 0.9 m rise by 2100. This would result in severe coastal flooding, with asset damages estimated at 9-11 percentage points of GDP reduction by 2050 under high-emission scenarios. Ocean warming threatens coral reefs (up to near-total loss if global temps exceed 2C), which provide critical ecosystem services worth US$442 million annually, supporting tourism and fisheries. Climate-induced impacts also include damage to human health, food security, and migration.

The economy is heavily reliant on tourism (30% GDP, half of value added) and fisheries (4.5% GDP, 50% of merchandise exports), both vulnerable to climate change. Tourism depends on natural capital like beaches and marine life, while fisheries face declining catches and species loss.

Key Recommendations:

1. Improve Macroeconomic Stability: Reduce subsidies, strengthen SOEs, implement revenue reforms (e.g., raise Green Tax), and adopt a Fiscal Responsibility Act to free up fiscal space for climate investments, preventing debt distress.
2. Enhance Climate Resilience of Islands & Infrastructure: Subdivide islands into categories (complete/medium-low protection, low/no protection, resort islands) to tailor adaptation measures like hard protection/investment, NbS, accommodation (flood-resilient housing/infrastructure), and island raising/land reclamation, guided by Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPPs).
3. Strengthen Coral Reef Protection: Develop a long-term management plan, restore mangroves and seagrass, establish effective Marine Protected Areas (MPAs), improve monitoring, and consider nature-based solutions for adaptation.
4. Boost Tourism & Fisheries Resilience: Research fish migration under climate scenarios, assess alternative livelihoods for fishers, mandate climate-resilient infrastructure for new resorts/guesthouses, and explore mariculture.
5. Mobilize Climate Finance: Operationalize the Climate Finance Hub, create a National Climate Adaptation Fund/Conservation Trust Fund, develop a national carbon market strategy, and promote public-private partnerships.
6. Unlock Green Transition Benefits: Phase out fossil fuel subsidies, promote renewable energy adoption (especially in tourism), phase out inefficient vehicles, and waste heat for energy savings.

Conclusion: An integrated approach combining fiscal sustainability, targeted adaptation investments, nature-based solutions, and innovative financing is crucial for building climate resilience while supporting green economic transitions in this vulnerable archipelago nation.