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Climate Risk Country Profile: Maldives

Core Content

The Maldives Climate Risk Country Profile is a collaborative effort by the World Bank Group (WBG) and the Asian Development Bank (ADB), aiming to provide a comprehensive overview of climate risks and their implications for development planning and policy-making in the Maldives. The document is based on data from the Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP) and incorporates climate projections from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5).

Key Messages

• Maldives has a consistently warm and humid climate, with a warming trend of $0.8^{\circ}\mathrm{C}$ between 1978 and 2018.
• Future warming under the highest emissions pathway (RCP8.5) is expected to be slightly less than the global average of $3.7^{\circ}\mathrm{C}$ by the 2090s, but still over $3^{\circ}\mathrm{C}$.
• Such warming could lead to dangerous temperature and humidity conditions, emphasizing the need for lower global emissions.
• Low-lying atoll islands are highly vulnerable to rising sea levels, with potential long-term inundation and increased economic and human impacts from wave flooding.
• The economy of the Maldives is heavily reliant on tourism, which is at risk from sea-level rise, temperature extremes, and shifts in global tourism behavior.
• Coral reefs and fisheries are under significant threat from climate change, affecting food security and livelihoods.
• Climate change poses a major threat to the way of life in the Maldives, with the poorest and most marginalized communities likely to be most affected.
• The Maldives is ranked 113th out of 181 countries in the 2020 ND-GAIN Index, indicating high vulnerability and low readiness to improve resilience.

Country Overview

• The Maldives is an archipelago of 26 low-lying coral atolls in the Indian Ocean, southwest of the Indian subcontinent.
• It consists of approximately 1,192 small tropical islands, of which 358 are used for economic activities and human settlement.
• Over 80% of the land area is less than 1 meter above mean sea level, making the country one of the lowest and flattest in the world.
• The population in 2019 was 533,900, with a unique cultural and ethnographic heritage.
• Tourism contributes about one third of GDP and is the fastest-growing sector, but the country's economy and society are highly sensitive to climate change impacts such as sea level rise, coastal storms, and flooding.
• The Maldives has published an Updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) in 2020 and submitted its Second National Communication (NC2) to the UNFCCC in 2016.

Climatology

Climate Baseline

• The Maldives experiences a warm and humid equatorial monsoonal climate.
• Historical mean annual temperature was $27.6^{\circ}\mathrm{C}$, with minimal inter-seasonal variation.
• Average monthly temperatures vary by at most $1^{\circ}\mathrm{C}$, and the country has relatively high precipitation rates.
• Seasonal fluctuations are most pronounced in the northern atolls, with average maximum temperatures around $29.3^{\circ}\mathrm{C}$ before the southwest monsoon and average minimum temperatures around $27.4^{\circ}\mathrm{C}$ before the northeast monsoon.

Key Trends

• Annual average maximum and minimum temperatures in Male (central region) have shown a rising trend of $0.17^{\circ}\mathrm{C}$ and $0.07^{\circ}\mathrm{C}$ per decade, respectively, over 1969–1999.
• Post-1977, the rate of warming has increased significantly, with a total warming of $0.8^{\circ}\mathrm{C}$ over 40 years.
• Annual rainfall in Male and Gan has shown decreasing trends of around 2.7 mm/year and 7.6 mm/year, respectively.
• The decreasing trend is visible only during the southwest monsoon season, with no significant trend observed during the northeast monsoon.

Climate Future

• Under RCP8.5, the highest emissions pathway, median annual temperatures in the Maldives are projected to reach around $3.4^{\circ}\mathrm{C}$ by the 2090s, compared to $3.7^{\circ}\mathrm{C}$ globally.
• Under RCP4.5, the lowest emissions pathway, average temperatures are expected to regularly exceed $30^{\circ}\mathrm{C}$, especially in northern atolls.
• Precipitation projections under RCP8.5 suggest a maximum potential increase of around $20%$ in annual rainfall, but median changes by 2100 show declines in February through June precipitation.

Climate Related Natural Hazards

• Heatwaves: Increasing frequency and intensity of extreme heat events.
• Drought: Potential for more frequent and severe droughts, especially in the north.
• Flood, Cyclones, Tsunamis and Storm Surge: Rising sea levels and more frequent extreme weather events could lead to increased flooding and storm damage, particularly affecting coastal infrastructure and communities.

Climate Change Impacts

Natural Resources

• Water: Limited freshwater resources, with increased risk of saltwater intrusion and reduced freshwater availability.
• Coastal Zones: Threatened by rising sea levels, leading to potential long-term inundation and increased flooding risks.

Coral Reefs and Fisheries

• Coral reefs and fisheries are at significant risk from climate change, which could impact food security and livelihoods.

Economic Sectors

• Agriculture and Food: Vulnerable to changes in temperature and precipitation patterns.
• Tourism: Likely to face pressure from sea-level rise, temperature extremes, and changes in global tourism behavior.
• Infrastructure: Critical infrastructure, including communication systems, airports, and harbors, is located near the coast and is at risk from sea-level rise and extreme weather events.

Communities

• Poverty, Inequality and Disaster Vulnerability: The country faces multi-dimensional poverty and undernourishment, with vulnerable communities likely to be most affected by climate impacts.
• Gender: Women and girls are disproportionately affected by climate change, particularly in terms of health and livelihoods.
• Human Health: Increased risks of heat-related illnesses, waterborne diseases, and other health issues due to climate change.

Policies and Programs

• The Maldives has published an updated NDC and submitted its Second National Communication to the UNFCCC, highlighting its vulnerability and commitment to adaptation.
• The country has committed to increasing its adaptive capacity, reducing beach erosion, and land loss from uncontrolled human settlements.
• ADB and WBG have developed climate risk screening tools and frameworks to support adaptation and resilience in development planning.

Green, Inclusive and Resilient Recovery

• The pandemic has highlighted the need for more resilient and sustainable recovery strategies.
• Recovery efforts should prioritize investments that boost jobs and economic activity, protect biodiversity and ecosystems, and enhance climate resilience.

Conclusion

The Maldives is a highly vulnerable country to climate change, with significant risks to its natural resources, economic sectors, and communities. The document underscores the importance of integrating climate resilience into development planning and emphasizes the need for adaptive strategies to mitigate the impacts of rising sea levels, extreme weather events, and other climate-related challenges. It serves as a valuable resource for development practitioners and policy makers working to support the country's transition to a low-carbon, climate-resilient future.