2025年全球保险报告_32页_1mb

Allianz Global Insurance Report 2025 Summary

Core Content

The Allianz Global Insurance Report 2025 provides an analysis of the global insurance industry's performance and future outlook, emphasizing the rising demand for protection in the context of economic and geopolitical changes.

Main Points

Global Insurance Growth in 2024

• The global insurance industry grew by +8.6% in 2024, surpassing the previous year's +8.2% growth.
• The global premium pool increased by EUR557bn, reaching a total of EUR7.0trn in life, P&C, and health insurance premiums.
• Insurance penetration (premiums as a percentage of GDP) rose from 7.1% in 2022 to 7.4% in 2024, though it remains similar to levels from a decade ago.
• Life insurance saw the highest growth at +10.4%, followed by P&C at +7.7% and health insurance at +7.0%.

Regional Performance

• North America was the strongest performer, with P&C growing by +8.2% and life insurance by +14.4%.
• Western Europe saw moderate growth in P&C (+6.0%) and life insurance (+7.1%), though it is losing relevance compared to other regions.
• Asia grew more slowly in P&C (+4.0%) but remained the largest life insurance market, with China leading growth at +15.4%.
• Rest of the World (excluding Asia and China) showed the highest growth in P&C at +17.1%, driven by high inflation in regions like Türkiye and Argentina.

Insurance vs General Inflation

• Insurance inflation outpaced general inflation in 2023 and 2024, with an average of +8.8% in 2024.
• The gap between insurance and general inflation widened, especially in 2022 when insurance inflation was +1.5% while general inflation was +8.5%.
• The combined ratio for EEA non-life insurers worsened in 2022 due to higher claims and lower premium growth, and only started to improve in 2024.

Economic Outlook for 2025

• Global GDP growth is expected to drop to +2.3%, the lowest since the Covid-19 pandemic.
• The US trade war is a key factor driving global uncertainty.
• The US is entering a mild recession with +0.8% growth in 2025, while the Eurozone is expected to grow at +0.8% in 2025 and +1.5% in 2026.
• Inflation will diverge between the US and Eurozone, with the US likely to see a rise and the Eurozone a decline due to lower energy prices and imported deflation.

Capital Market Trends

• The US dollar is losing its dominance as an international reserve currency.
• Investor sentiment has shifted away from US assets, leading to a correction in equity indices and a rise in interest rates.
• These trends could lead to fragmented and less efficient global financial systems.

Future Outlook

• The P&C segment is expected to grow at +4.5% annually until 2035, driven by the need for more protection.
• Life insurance is projected to grow at a CAGR of +5.0%, with Asia and China as the main growth engines.
• Health insurance is expected to grow at +6.7% annually, with the US accounting for the majority of the additional premiums.

Key Information

Insurance and the SDGs

• Insurance has a significant impact on the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
• Policymakers and industry leaders must collaborate to leverage insurance's potential in supporting the SDGs.
• Regulatory frameworks, tax incentives, and public-private partnerships are suggested as ways to encourage sustainable insurance practices.

Market Penetration

• Insurance penetration varies significantly by region:
  • North America: 4.3%
  • Western Europe: 2.5%
  • Asia: 4.3% (with China and India at 2.4% and 2.7% respectively)
• The US has the highest penetration in health insurance, with the market accounting for ~66% of global premium income.

Long-Term Growth Projections

• The global premium pool is expected to grow by EUR5,319bn over the next ten years.
• Life insurance will account for the largest share of this growth (EUR2,055bn), with Asia (including China) contributing EUR1,071bn.
• P&C growth will be driven largely by North America (EUR1,522bn), while health insurance will be dominated by the US (EUR1,743bn).

Conclusion

The report highlights the insurance industry's resilience and adaptability in the face of economic and geopolitical uncertainties. While the US continues to dominate the global insurance market, there are signs of convergence in growth patterns, especially in Asia and Europe. The rising need for protection is a global phenomenon, and the insurance industry is well-positioned to respond to this demand, especially in the context of ESG integration and supporting the SDGs.