20160411-高盛-A_glance_at_the_Asia_property_market_11页_293kb

报告摘要

Asia Property Weekly Summary

Core Content Overview

This summary provides a detailed analysis of the Asia property market trends, key news, performance metrics, and upcoming events as of the latest report.

Key Market Trends

China Property Market

Transaction Volume: Down by 21% week-on-week (wow) and 14% below the March weekly average. Tier 1 cities underperformed.
Land Transactions: Volume and value fell by -44‰ and +85% wow, respectively.
Home Sales: Sharp decline in Shanghai and Shenzhen after tightened purchase policies.
Household Sentiment: Rebounded in March due to economic stabilization and reduced taxes on home purchases.
Inventory: Inventory months dropped to 9.1, indicating a shrinking supply.
Residential Prices: Shanghai and Shenzhen saw significant price increases in February, but recent sales have dropped sharply.
Performance: China Property (off-shore) and (on-shore) showed mixed results with price performance ranging from -32% to +4% over various time frames.

Hong Kong Property Market

Residential Sales: Estimated 229 primary residential units sold in the week ending April 10.
Secondary Market Prices: Up 0.3% wow as of April 3, but down 5.9% year-to-date (Ytd).
PMI: Fell for 13 consecutive months to 45.5 in March, the lowest since August 2015.
Commercial Market: Office rents in the first quarter of 2016 dropped to $9.90, down 4.8% quarter-on-quarter (qoq) and 13.2% year-on-year (yoy). Vacancy rates increased to 5.8%.
Performance: Hong Kong Properties showed mixed performance, with some stocks outperforming and others underperforming.

Japan Property Market

Vacancy Rates: Tokyo central 5 wards saw a 4.34% vacancy rate in March, up from 4.04% in February.
Office Rents: Increased by 0.39% MoM, continuing a 27-month improvement trend.
Residential Market: Tokyo residential price index at 176, with a 7% increase from end of 2015. The rental yield was 5.23%.
Performance: Japan Property Developers and REITs showed varied performance, with some stocks showing positive returns and others negative.

Singapore Property Market

Office Rents: Grade A office rents fell to $9.90 in 1Q16, down 4.8% qoq and 13.2% yoy. Vacancy rates increased to 5.8%.
Residential Market: Residential price index at 168, down 6% from end of 2015. Rental yield at 3.15%.
Performance: Singapore Property showed mixed results, with some stocks performing well and others underperforming.

Major Events and Announcements

China: Upcoming events include CPI, PPI, money supply data, trade balance, and GDP releases.
India: CPI and IP data to be released on April 12.
Japan: PPI and IP data to be released on April 13 and 15.
Singapore: MGCCT 4Q FY15/16 full-year results on April 27.

Top and Bottom Performers

Top 5 Performers

Joy City City Properties Ltd. (11% 1-wk, 19% 1-mo)
Japan Hotel REIT (6% 1-wk, 5% 1-mo)
K Walt Inft (6% 1-wk, 20% 1-mo)
SOHO China (6% 1-wk, -2% 1-mo)
Nippon Accommodations (6% 1-wk, 4% 1-mo)

Bottom 5 Performers

Shanghai-Lia省 (-0% 1-wk, 17% 1-mo)
China Lodong Group (3% 1-wk, 32% 1-mo)
Yanlfond Land (1% 1-wk, 6% 1-mo)
Guangzhou R&B (1% 1-wk, 12% 1-mo)
Nippon Proliade REIT Inc (2% 1-wk, 2% 1-mo)

Largest Upsides/Downsides

Buy-Rated Stocks

Shimao: 102% upside potential
Mitsubishi Estate: 77% upside potential
Mitui Fudosan: 74% upside potential
Aigle: 74% upside potential
Tokyo Tatemono: 72% upside potential

Sell-Rated Stocks

Bumi Serope: -32% downside potential
Everande: -28% downside potential
Gemdale Corp: -22% downside potential
Champion REIT: -11% downside potential
Advance Residence Inv.: -2% downside potential

Key Research Highlights

China Property: Volatility down wow due to tightened purchase policies; inventory shrank.
Cheung Kong Property Holdings: Expected to see higher recurring income amid active capital management.
Indonesia: Weak pre-sales and margins set up a soft market for 2016.

Analyst Contact Information

Anthony Wu: +852-2978-0634, anthony.wu@gs.com, Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
Claire Cheng: +852-2978-2488, claire.cheng@gs.com, Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
Nelson Wang: +65-6654-5463, nelson.wang@gs.com, Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte

Disclosure

Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html.