20260824-招银国际-途虎-W-09690.HK-1H26_in_line_gaining_share_amid_headwinds_5页_1mb

Tuhu Car (9690 HK) Summary

Core Content

Tuhu Car (9690 HK) is a key player in China's auto aftermarket industry, with a strong focus on expanding its network of automotive service workshops and capturing market share in key products like replacement tires and engine oil. The company is expected to achieve its target of 10,000 workshops ahead of its original end-2027 timeline, driven by record store openings and a strategic focus on emerging growth areas such as NEV (New Energy Vehicle) repair and premium car services.

Key Financial Highlights

• 1H26 Performance:

  • Revenue rose 11.4% YoY to RMB8.8bn, in line with estimates.
  • Adjusted net profit reached RMB240mn, beating forecasts by 13% due to higher-than-expected share-based payment.
  • Tire sales volume increased by 18% YoY, while engine oil sales volume rose 12% against a 7% industry decline.
  • Gross margin fell 1.8ppts YoY to 23.3%, but increased 0.2ppts HoH.
  • Net profit dropped 40% YoY to RMB184mn, but rose 63% HoH.

• Growth Drivers:

  • NEV Repair: Out-of-warranty NEV repair revenue surged 250% YoY in 1H26, with 160+ NEV-specialised workshops and 5.3mn NEV transacting users.
  • Premium Market: Upgraded 20 workshops to serve luxury car owners.
  • Overseas Expansion: Grew its network with 14 workshops in Malaysia and 7 in Hong Kong.

• Store Economics:

  • Over 90% of stores open for 6+ months operate profitably.
  • Payback period is under 36 months.
  • Market share in replacement tires rose ~2ppts to 14%, and engine oil reached mid-to-high single digits.

Financial Forecasts (FY26E - FY28E)

Valuation and Earnings Summary

• Current Price: HK$11.99
• Target Price (TP): HK$18.00
• Upside/Downside: 50.1%
• P/E (Adjusted) for FY27E: 13.5x (unchanged)
• Earnings Growth:
  • Revenue growth is expected to remain stable at ~11.4% for FY26E and FY27E, with a slight decline to 6.7% in FY28E.
  • Adjusted net profit is forecasted to grow from RMB486mn in FY26E to RMB759mn in FY28E.
  • Gross margin is projected to remain relatively flat, with a slight increase in FY27E and FY28E.

Shareholding and Stock Data

Shareholding Structure

Share Performance

Analyst Ratings and Recommendations

• Ratings:

  • BUY: Stock with potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months.
  • HOLD: Stock with potential return of +15% to -10% over the next 12 months.
  • SELL: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over the next 12 months.
  • OUTPERFORM: Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark.
  • MARKET-PERFORM: Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark.
  • UNDERPERFORM: Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark.

• CMBIGM Recommendation: BUY, with a target price of HK$18.00, based on a 20x adjusted FY27E P/E ratio.

Key Risks

• Slower network expansion.
• Lower-than-expected revenue or margins.
• Sector de-rating.

Financial Ratios and Performance

Valuation Metrics

Conclusion

Tuhu Car is positioned to benefit from the consolidation in China's auto aftermarket industry, with strong performance in key product lines and a robust expansion strategy. Despite some challenges, the company's store economics, market share gains, and new growth drivers (NEV, premiumization, and overseas expansion) support a positive outlook. The analyst maintains a BUY rating with a target price of HK$18.00.