2023-11-08-思睿研究-展望2024_无往不复_25页_6mb

报告摘要

Economic Normalization and Market Performance: In 2023, China's economy began a repair phase post-pandemic, with stock market trading ranges largely staying within the predicted intervals from October 2023 (e.g., Shanghai Composite: 3,000-3,500 points, Hang Seng: 16,000-23,000 points). Actual trading was confirmed to align closely with predictions, indicating resilience.
Renminbi Weakening and Factors: The renminbi has reached a cyclical low, influenced by the widening US-China interest rate differential and capital flight. This has dragged down China's investment returns, with foreign capital flows showing relief signs as the differential may peak.
Economic Cycle and Forecasts: Using proprietary models like the EYBY indicator, GROW predicts the 2024 trading range for 2024 is similar to 2023, with Shanghai Composite slightly lower and Hang Seng stable at their earlier lows. The economy is in a recovery phase, with risks from property sector stagnation and global economic uncertainties.
Risk Factors: Potential U.S. recession, ongoing property inventory issues, and external capital flows pose challenges. However, China's monetary policy remains accommodative to support growth, while fiscal measures are expected to play a key role.
Overall Outlook: Markets are expected to exhibit a rebound driven by narrowing renminbi pressure and improved investor confidence, but vigilance is needed due to ongoing economic uncertainties.