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Emerging Market Green Bonds Report (May 2024, IFC-Amundi)
Key Summary

The 2023 Emerging Market Green Bonds Report, published jointly by Amundi and the International Finance Corporation (IFC), highlights significant growth in the Green, Social, Sustainability, and Sustainability-Linked (GSSS) bond market, driven by global climate commitments, improving financial conditions, and regulatory advancements.

Market Performance in 2023
Emerging market GSSS bond issuance surged by 45% to reach $209 billion, an all-time high, with China contributing $98 billion (28% growth) and non-China markets rising 65% to $111 billion. Sovereign borrowers, particularly in the Middle East and North Africa (UAE and Saudi Arabia saw over 100% growth), played a pivotal role, increasing their share of total issuance to 17% (from 7% in 2022). Financial institutions remained the largest issuers (58% of total issuance), while corporate shares dropped to 21%. Renewable energy accounted for 37% of proceeds, green buildings rose to 29% (up from 9% in 2022), and water projects gained 12% (blue bonds drove this increase).

Funding Trends and Use of Proceeds
Green bonds (accounting for ~65% of GSSS issuance) reached $135 billion in 2023, with China alone issuing $292 billion (63% of total emerging market green bonds). The report notes that while green bond yields are slightly lower than conventional bonds in emerging markets, global macroeconomic challenges like inflation and geopolitical tensions affect long-term prospects. Amundi’s central forecast predicts 7.1% annual growth in emerging market GSSS bonds through 2025, reaching $240 billion, compared to 7.5% for green bonds alone.

Regional Highlights

• Asia-Pacific: China’s issuance stabilized at $292 billion, while India’s green bond framework (launched in 2022) supported $5.1 billion in 2023. Brazil’s first sovereign green bond ($2 billion) and Chile’s inclusion of a gender-based performance metric in its SLB framework were notable.
• Latin America: Green bond issuance grew 88% (reaching $10.1 billion), with Brazil and Chile leading. Mexico’s sustainable taxonomy (interoperable with EU standards) and Uruguay’s tap of its 2022 SLB ($700 million added) were also significant.
• Middle East and North Africa: The UAE and Saudi Arabia drove 174% and 119% growth, respectively, totaling $15.5 billion. The UAE’s green bonds ($8.7 billion) and Saudi Arabia’s ($6.7 billion) underscored regional focus on climate transition.
• Sub-Saharan Africa: Issuance rose 125% to $1.4 billion, with South Africa ($900 million) and Zambia’s green bond ($53.5 million) as key examples. Gabon’s blue bond (a debt-for-nature swap) raised $500 million.

Challenges and Opportunities

• Greenwashing: Persistent concerns about misaligned sustainability claims remain, though stricter regulations and taxonomies (e.g., EU-China Common Ground Taxonomy) aim to address this.
• Market Penetration: GSSS bonds account for 5% of annual emerging market issuance (up from 2.2% in 2022), but the market remains nascent, with only 18% of emerging market green bonds rated in 2023.
• Innovation: Chile’s gender-focused SLB framework and the growth of blue bonds (water/ocean projects) reflect expanding social and environmental focus. Islamic finance initiatives, such as Malaysia’s biodiversity sukuk, also gained traction.

Policy and Regulatory Progress

• Taxonomies and Frameworks: ASEAN updated its Sustainable Finance Taxonomy (March 2023), while the Common Framework for Latin America and the Caribbean emphasizes interoperability with global standards.
• Transparency: IFC’s Green Bond Transparency Platform and the Green Bond Pricing reports help standardize disclosures and reduce investor risks.
• Biodiversity Focus: The IFC Biodiversity Finance Reference Guide (2022) and TNFD’s nature-related disclosure recommendations are critical for aligning finance with conservation goals.

Outlook

• Central Scenario: GSSS issuance is projected to grow at 7.1% annually (2023–2025), reaching $240 billion, with green bonds growing faster at 7.5% to $156 billion.
• Alternative Scenarios: A pessimistic outlook anticipates 8.3% growth in GSSS bonds and 15% lower green bond issuance in 2025 due to geopolitical risks. An optimistic scenario sees 25% annual growth, with green bonds reaching $311 billion by 2025.
• Long-term Drivers: The energy transition, climate commitments (e.g., COP28), and improving market infrastructure will sustain growth, though challenges like inflation and regulatory inconsistencies persist.

Conclusion
Emerging market GSSS bonds now represent ~5% of annual issuance, with China dominating at 66% in 2023. While the market shows resilience and innovation, its long-term success hinges on standardized taxonomies, regulatory harmonization, and combating greenwashing. The report emphasizes the role of private sector financing in supporting climate transitions, urging continued collaboration among governments, investors, and multilateral institutions.

Appendices
Annex 1 provides regional issuance data, Annex 2 details key 2023 deals (e.g., India’s green bonds, Chile’s SLBs), and Annex 3 highlights policies like the ASEAN Taxonomy, IFC’s biodiversity frameworks, and Islamic finance initiatives. The data underscores the market’s evolving structure and its alignment with global sustainability goals, though gaps in financing and standardization remain critical areas for improvement.