2025-06-02-IEA-2025年全球关键矿产展望（英）_312页_24mb

报告摘要

Demand Growth: Demand for key energy minerals (copper, lithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite, rare earths) is growing strongly, driven by electrification, energy transitions, and renewable deployment. Lithium demand surged 500% (Yoy), while cobalt and nickel demand saw over 20% Yoy growth.
Supply Balances: Market balances are improving but still show high concentration risks. By 2035, China dominates refining for many minerals, with refined materials concentration rising.
Price Volatility: Prices declined in 2024 due to oversupply, but vulnerability to disruptions remains high. Battery metal price declines (e.g., lithium 25%, nickel 30%) eased demand-side inflation.
Diversification Challenges: Geographic concentration remains a barrier to diversification. Projects in diversified regions face funding and permitting hurdles, slowing supply growth.

The report examines critical minerals (mineral-associated with energy technologies) and their role in global energy transition. Fourteen major minerals are analyzed, with policy trends, supply chains, and regional developments highlighted.

Demand: Electric vehicles, batteries, and solar PV were the top demand drivers. Global EV sales reached 17 million (up 25% Yoy), with batteries surpassing 1 TWh in demand.
Supply: Established producers (China, Indonesia) supplied most minerals. Exploration spent remained flat at ~USD 6.7 billion.
Prices: Battery metals fell ~20% (e.g., lithium -45%), while copper and nickel saw modest declines due to aluminum and steel prices.
Investment: Declined to 5% Yoy (real terms). China's copper smelter costs rose, squeezing margins for diversified miners.
Trade Controls: China announced export restrictions on gallium, germanium, antimony, and others.

Demand Projections: Demand for copper, lithium, graphite, and rare earths will grow significantly (e.g., lithium 40x from 2024). EVs dominate demand, accounting for ~57% (by 2050).
Supply Scenarios: Base case supply deficits emerge post-2030 (e.g., ~33% copper gap in 2040). Diversification is slow, with shortages in nickel (30% under base case scenarios).
Market Balances: Near-term oversupply; deficits in key metals (e.g., lithium, graphite) from early 2030s.
Price Sensitivity: Nickel and copper are most affected by supply disruptions; battery metals are less volatiles.
Policy Impacts: Export controls, tariffs, and demand shifts risk supply chains. Scenarios like APS/AZE show stronger growth, reducing per mineral risks.

Europe: Halved rare earth imports; boosted copper refining (€35B funds planned). Market value up to €108B by 2040.
North America: Lithium-dominated exports to India, SEA; refining value ~USD 4B by 2040.
Central/South America: Hold essential reserves (e.g., manganese, cobalt). Projects announced in Argentina & Zimbabwe aim at diversification.
China: Dominant player (50%+ refined supply). Export controls expanding; Quartz Desert project attacked.

Policy Mechanisms: Market-based incentives, volume guarantees, contracts-for-difference (like NZE exports) may foster diversification.
Tech Innovation: Direct lithium extraction, sodium-ion batteries, & recycling breakthroughs could ease supply bottlenecks.
Other Strategic Minerals: Demand linked to AI/Data centers; policies shape sector development.

Aluminium: High energy intensity; substitution options limited.
Manganese: Essential for batteries; demand driven by EVs.
Silicon: Solar energy driver; battery demand rising with tailpipes.
Platinum-Group Metals: National security focus; recycling gaining importance.
Uranium: Nuclear energy role, supply-mine linkage in energy transition.

Data Explorer: Interactive tool for projections and demand.
Policy Tracker: 500+ policies tracked under IEA framework.
Methodology: Demand linked from WEO scenarios; supply from project pipelines; assumptions verified by expert reviews.

This overview provides a concise summary of IEA's key findings on critical minerals for global energy transition security.

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