世界银行-印尼投资改革的早期影响：初步分析（英）-2023.6-40页_1mb

Indonesia's Investment Reforms Summary

Indonesia implemented significant investment reforms in 2021 through Presidential Regulation No. 10/2021 and its amendment (No. 49/2021), which dramatically reduced foreign direct investment (FDI) restrictions. This reform lifted FDI barriers in over 500 business activities, removing previous restrictions on foreign equity limits and sectoral reservations for foreign investors. The reforms are evaluated using a difference-in-difference-in-difference (DDD) event study model based on quarterly and monthly data from 2019 to 2023, controlling for sectoral and temporal effects and adjusting for macroeconomic factors such as GDP and nominal exchange rates, as well as the COVID-19 recovery period.

The results indicate that FDI inflows increased in fully liberalized sectors while declining in restricted sectors. The reforms also appear to have led to a positive crowding-in effect on domestic direct investment (DDI). The base metal industry was identified as a key driver across realized FDI, DDI, and planned FDI, partly due to Indonesia's position as a major nickel producer. Sustainable development goals (SDG)-related sectors showed mixed results, highlighting the need for sector-specific analysis.

The study provides suggestive evidence of complementarity between the investment reforms and concurrent trade policy changes, demonstrating sustained positive effects on FDI even after accounting for external factors. The findings remain robust across alternative event study models and control specifications.

Further research is recommended to examine long-term impacts on investment quality, distributional effects, and sustainable outcomes beyond the short term.

Key Takeaways:

• Positive Impact: Reforms boost both realized and planned FDI, particularly in fully liberalized non-commodity sectors.
• Crowding-In: Domestic investment increases, suggesting a positive impact on local businesses.
• Complementarity: Trade reforms reinforced effects, underscoring the importance of complementary policies.
• Robustness: Methodology and results hold under various control specifications, including for COVID-19 recovery.

This study highlights the importance of carefully calibrated policies to optimize FDI inflows and domestic investment while supporting sustainable and equitable growth.