Jetro-2018年世界贸易投资报告概要版（英文）-2018-18页-1mb

JETRO Global Trade and Investment Report 2018 Summary

Core Content

The JETRO Global Trade and Investment Report 2018 provides an overview of the global economy's growth through digitalization, highlighting the dynamics of global trade and foreign direct investment (FDI), as well as the impact of trade policies.

Key Points

Global Trade

• In 2017, the world trade value increased by 10.5% to $17.3 trillion (JETRO estimate), marking the first growth in three years.
• The trade volume also increased by 4.5%, reaching its highest growth since 2011.
• The increase was driven by commodity-related products (45% contribution) and semiconductor-related products, due to rising prices and global investment recovery.
• In Q1 2018, trade value of goods (from 34 major economies) increased by 13.3% for exports and 14.6% for imports, but concerns about trade restrictions remain.
• The world's import volume growth was 1.3 times that of the world economic growth rate, indicating a shift from the "slow trade" trend of the previous five years.

Japan's Trade

• Japan's exports in 2017 amounted to $697.2 billion, up 8.2% from the previous year.
• Imports increased by 10.5% to $671.0 billion.
• This resulted in a trade surplus of $26.3 billion, continuing the trend for the second consecutive year.
• Exports of general machinery, including semiconductor manufacturing equipment, were particularly strong.

World Trade Policies

• The pace of FTAs going into force has declined, but the EU-Japan EPA and TPP 11 are expected to have significant economic impacts.
• There is a growing concern about the multilateral trading system due to the use of unilateral measures by the US and the high number of anti-dumping investigations.
• The WTO is seeing efforts to start discussions on e-commerce among like-minded countries, emphasizing the need for multilateral rule formation in digital trade.

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)

• Japan's outward FDI in 2017 decreased by 3.0% to $168.6 billion, but it remained the second-highest level on record.
• Investment in Asia (particularly China and ASEAN) showed signs of recovery, while investment in the EU decreased by 17.8%.
• The US remained the largest investment destination for eight consecutive years.
• Japanese firms in China showed increased motivation to expand business within the country, suggesting a potential revival in the Japanese business presence there.
• East Asian countries, especially China, are becoming more prominent as sources of FDI, with China accounting for 44.8% of the region's outward FDI stock.

Digital Trade

• Digital trade is growing faster than traditional goods and services, with cross-border e-commerce and data flows being key drivers.
• Japan's share in the export of digital-related goods is declining, but it maintains the world's largest share in semiconductor manufacturing equipment and industrial robots since 2007.
• Digital-related companies are increasing their cross-border investments and M&A activities, with the US leading in the number of projects/deals, but China is expanding its share.

Trends in Digital Trade Policy

• The US promotes the liberalization of digital trade through FTAs.
• The EU is actively forming digital-related rules, including competition policy and tax reform.
• China is imposing strict domestic restrictions on foreign capital investment.
• These differences in policy highlight the need for multilateral discussions on digital trade within the WTO.

Conclusion

The report outlines the positive growth in global trade in 2017, driven by commodity and semiconductor-related products, and the impact of digitalization on trade and investment. It also highlights Japan's role in the global trade landscape, the decline in FDI and the resilience in Asian markets, and the increasing importance of digital trade policies in shaping the future of international commerce.