PitchBook-美国总统选举指南（英）-2024-21页_500kb

Analysis of Potential US Presidential Election Impact on Private Markets

Introduction

PitchBook analyzes how a Democratic or Republican victory in the 2024 US presidential election could impact private markets, focusing on key policy differences and regulatory trends. Congress’s composition and budget reconciliation processes will play a critical role in determining policy outcomes, with potential impacts on sectors including AI, healthcare, climate tech, and venture capital.

Key Findings

1. Industry and Technology

• AI and Machine Learning:
  • Democrats: Support responsible AI development, transparency, and a national AI safety institute.
  • Republicans: Focus on innovation without strict regulations; pledge to repeal the AI Bill of Rights.
• Healthcare:
  • Democrats: Expand Medicaid, regulate private equity in healthcare providers, and strengthen corporate greed probes.
  • Republicans: Reduce Medicaid funding, increase transparency in PE investments, and weaken antitrust enforcement.
• Fintech:
  • Democrats: Advocate for consumer protection, antitrust scrutiny, and data privacy.
  • Republicans: Favor less regulation, allowing market-driven solutions and reduced oversight.

2. Climate Tech

• Democrats: Continue supporting clean energy incentives, carbon capture, and the Paris Agreement.
• Republicans: Plan to rescind clean energy policies and withdraw from international agreements.

3. Biotech and Pharma

• Democrats: Support the BIOSECURE Act to reduce reliance on foreign adversaries and drug price negotiations under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).
• Republicans: Back similar measures to curb Chinese influence but oppose Medicare drug price controls.

4. Cybersecurity

• Democrats: Push for stronger federal cybersecurity legislation.
• Republicans: Downsize federal staffing and prioritize offensive capabilities.

5. Space Tech Commercialization

• Democrats: Focus on sustainability and NASA partnerships.
• Republicans: Advocate for aggressive US dominance in space through public-private partnerships.

6. Crypto and Digital Assets

• Democrats: Maintain a cautious stance with consumer protection priorities.
• Republicans: Support crypto innovation and propose tax incentives under “crypto capital of the planet” rhetoric.

7. Venture Capital and Tax Policy

• Democrats: Potentially increase taxes on the wealthy and unrealized capital gains.
• Republicans: Resist tax hikes and prioritize reducing corporate and individual tax burdens.

Conclusion

The 2024 election outcomes will significantly shape private markets, particularly in tech, healthcare, and climate tech. Policy shifts in regulation, taxation, and international agreements under each party may alter investment landscapes, requiring market participants to adapt to evolving regulatory environments.