BBVA2025年中国经济展望-英文版_40页_1mb

BBVA China Economic Outlook Summary (June 2025)

Key Challenges and Risks

• Trade War and Tariffs: The ongoing trade war has led to significant tariff increases (e.g., up to 30% on China) which may weigh on economic activity globally. US tariffs could moderate, but China is preparing retaliatory measures.
• Policy Uncertainty: Protectionism, fiscal stimulus debates, and migration policies contribute to economic uncertainty.
• Inflation and Rates: Tariffs and monetary policies keep inflation high, with the Fed likely to maintain rates unchanged amid concerns over US risks and dollar strength.

Economic Growth Forecasts

• China's Growth: Projected at 4.8% for 2025, revised upward from 4.5%, with moderate prospects due to both fiscal spending and tariff impacts. GDP growth contributions from domestic and external demand are analyzed, with China showing resilience.
• Global Growth: Global GDP growth is expected to slow, from 3.4% in 2024 to 3.0% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026.
• Impact of Tariffs: Tariffs may slow growth more than previously anticipated, with the US experiencing a moderate rebound.

Inflation and Monetary Policy

• Inflation Trends: Inflation in the US, EU, and China is high, with tariffs pushing prices further up. The Fed is likely to keep rates unchanged, balancing risks and stimulus.
• Policy Responses: Fiscal and monetary easing may resume if pressures prove transitory, but cautious policies are expected given ongoing uncertainties.

Major Events and Stimulus

• China-US Agreement: The Geneva Agreement reduced US-China tariffs from 145% to 30%, mitigating some risks.
• Stimulus Packages: China plans large-scale fiscal and monetary policies, including lower interest rates, housing incentives, and consumption programs, to boost growth.

Key Indicators

• CPI and PPI: High inflation in the US and China, with a slight decline in the Eurozone. Service inflation particularly affected by tariffs.
• Exchange Rates and Yields: US and Chinese rates may stabilize or decrease, with China's credit growth slowing amid weak demand.

Baseline Scenario

• Assumptions:
  • Tariffs remain elevated (average 30% for China).
  • Growth may moderate but is supported by government stimulus.
  • Inflation could accelerate faster than expected, keeping monetary policy cautious.
• Outcomes:
  • GDP forecast updated to 4.8% in 2025.
  • Inflation is set to rise, pressuring rates and affecting global balances.

Risks and Uncertainties

• Sustained Tariffs: Ongoing trade disputes and protectionism pose long-term risks to global trade.
• Structural Issues: Labor markets and productivity gains could be hindered in the US, while Europe and China face external headwinds like lower commodity prices.
• Short-Term Volatility: Market and asset volatility persists due to tariffs and policy shifts.

Conclusion

The trade war introduces significant risks, but policy responses, including tariffs reductions from the Geneva Agreement, provide a cushion. China's stimulus aims to boost growth, while global inflation and monetary policies are closely monitored. By end-2025, potential easing could stabilize markets if tariffs moderate, but ongoing protectionism and global uncertainties may limit gains. Baseline forecasts indicate a recovery in growth and inflation alignment following recent agreements.