2019年趋势预测报告（英文版）_18页_3mb

2019 Year-Ahead Predictions Summary

Core Content Overview

The Global Business Policy Council has outlined 10 key predictions for 2019, highlighting significant global events and trends that will impact the business environment. These predictions span trade, technology, environmental issues, and geopolitical relations, with a focus on how these developments will shape the future of industries and economies worldwide.

Main Predictions and Key Points

1. The US-China Trade War Will Intensify

• Context: Trade tensions worsened in 2018 due to tariffs and retaliatory measures.
• Expectations for 2019: The trade war is expected to continue, with potential for further tariff increases.
• Impact: Southeast Asian economies may benefit from shifting supply chains, while the global economy could face a 0.2 to 0.4 percentage point reduction in output.

2. Bitcoin Will Lead the Consolidation and Maturation of the Cryptocurrency Market

• Context: The cryptocurrency market saw a significant crash in 2018.
• Expectations for 2019: Bitcoin is expected to regain dominance, capturing nearly two-thirds of the market.
• Regulatory Shifts: Financial regulators, including the UK and US, will move toward greater oversight and acceptance of cryptocurrencies.

3. The Global Trash Crisis Will Spur Innovations in Waste Management

• Context: China and Southeast Asian countries limited plastic imports, leading to waste accumulation.
• Expectations for 2019: Innovation in waste management will accelerate, with new technologies and products aimed at reducing waste.
• Examples: AI-driven sorting, new recycling initiatives, and companies like Scrapo and Ecovative are expected to disrupt traditional practices.

4. The Global Shipping Industry Will Crash into New Sulfur Regulations

• Context: The IMO will enforce a ban on high-sulfur fuel starting January 1, 2020.
• Expectations for 2019: The industry will face a chaotic transition due to low readiness.
• Implications: Fuel prices will become more volatile, and shipping costs will rise, affecting global trade and consumer prices.

5. The Xi-Putin Relationship Will Be the World's Most Consequential Bromance

• Context: Sino-Russian economic and strategic ties have grown, especially in energy and security.
• Expectations for 2019: The relationship will deepen as both leaders challenge US influence.
• Economic Impact: The Power of Siberia pipeline and other projects will solidify energy and trade links between the two countries.

6. The Global Anxiety Epidemic Will Lead to a Proliferation of New Products

• Context: Anxiety and depression are increasingly prevalent globally.
• Expectations for 2019: A surge in anti-anxiety products will be seen, including CBD-infused beverages, meditation apps, and therapeutic gadgets.
• Demographics: The aging Baby Boomer generation and younger professionals will drive demand for such products.

7. A Sand Shortage Will Grind the Gears of the Global Construction Industry

• Context: Sand is the second most extracted natural resource, with high demand from construction.
• Expectations for 2019: Rising sand prices will strain the construction industry, especially in emerging markets.
• Environmental Impact: Sand extraction is causing ecological damage, including erosion of water-based ecosystems.

8. The Looming Emerging Markets Credit Crisis Will Grow in Both Scale and Scope

• Context: Emerging markets face financial stress due to foreign debt and currency depreciation.
• Expectations for 2019: More countries will seek IMF bailouts, and the crisis will be exacerbated by rising US interest rates and a stronger dollar.
• Role of China: China's role as a major creditor will diminish due to trade tensions with the US.

9. Africa Will Be More Connected Than Ever

• Context: African countries are working toward regional economic integration.
• Expectations for 2019: The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) will enter into force once ratified by enough countries.
• Infrastructure and Connectivity: Airline routes and railway investments are expected to expand, while digital connectivity will improve.

10. Real-Life "Iron Man" Will Materialize in the Form of Exoskeletons

• Context: Exoskeletons have been in development for decades but have not yet become mainstream.
• Expectations for 2019: Exoskeletons will move from sci-fi to practical use in various sectors.
• Applications: Medical, industrial, and military uses will expand, with regulatory approvals and investment in new technologies.

Conclusion

The 2019 predictions highlight a year of significant global transformation, driven by trade tensions, technological advancements, environmental challenges, and geopolitical shifts. These developments will have wide-ranging impacts on industries, economies, and societies worldwide, requiring proactive preparation and adaptation.