20230806-南华期货-LPG周报_FEI与CP价差回落_价格强势或接近尾声_32页_2mb

南华期货LPG周报分析总结

报告要点概述：

• 全球原油市场：沙特与俄罗斯延长减产，宏观风险偏好下降和汽油裂解回落限制油价上行，布油面临85-87美金/桶强阻力位。OPEC+会议后，需求端因素成为焦点。
• 外盘丙烷：8月沙特CP报470美元/吨，FEI/CP价差从高位回落至102美元/吨，沙特CP领涨；中东离岸贴水走强，买兴逐步下滑。船货运费维持高位，中东至远东运价达103美元/吨。
• 中国需求：PDH（丙烷脱氢装置）开工率升至84%的年内高点，但利润自3月中旬以来首次转负；烷基化装置需求受气温影响和经济数据下滑支撑较弱。
• 市场情绪与策略：LPG价格涨势趋缓，布油高位、价差收窄、PDH利润下跌共同作用，支持做空PG2310合约；期权活跃度高，市场略看涨但隐含波动率未显著上升。
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