2017美国在线零售市场预测报告（英文版）_7页_1mb

U.S. Online Retail Forecast Summary

Core Content

This document provides an analysis of the U.S. online retail market, highlighting the rapid growth of e-commerce, the challenges faced by traditional retailers, and the strategic moves by major players like Amazon and Wal-Mart to capture market share. It also explores the future potential of online shopping, especially in categories like grocery, and discusses the implications of the shift to digital commerce.

Main Points

1. Accelerated Online Sales Growth

• Online retail sales have grown at a double-digit rate since 2015, with a YOY growth rate of 15% in 2017.
• The online channel now accounts for 12% of total U.S. retail sales (excluding auto and gas).
• It is responsible for 50-60% of total retail sales growth, indicating its dominance in driving the sector forward.

2. Retailers Face Pressure

• The rise of online shopping has contributed to the rash of retail bankruptcies and store closures over the past two years, even in a non-recessionary environment.
• Traditional retailers are struggling to adapt, and the perception of the market has turned grim among investors and observers.
• The market share of online retail is expected to double by 2023, putting significant pressure on physical stores.

3. Adoption of Online Shopping is Near Saturation

• 80% of Americans have shopped online, with 43% doing so weekly or more.
• The adoption rate is expected to plateau near 90% of U.S. households, meaning future growth will come from increased frequency and product diversification rather than new users.
• Mobile commerce is a key driver, with only 51% of Americans currently shopping via mobile, but significant potential among younger and more tech-savvy demographics.

4. Grocery is the Final Frontier

• Grocery is a $750 billion category with less than 2% online penetration, despite 20 years of efforts.
• Amazon and Wal-Mart are both investing heavily in online grocery, with Amazon acquiring Whole Foods and launching Amazon Go.
• While online grocery is not yet widely adopted, it represents a large opportunity for e-commerce to expand into new product categories.

5. The Shift to Online Shopping

• Impulse buying is increasingly moving to stores, with 80% of such purchases occurring in physical locations.
• The utilitarian nature of shopping has shifted, with consumers less excited about in-store experiences.
• The future of retail is expected to see a decline in the number of physical stores, especially for large, mature chains, as online sales continue to rise.

Key Information

6. Forecast Model and Growth Projections

• The forecast model uses a logistic (S-curve) growth approach, predicting a natural limit to online market share.
• The ultimate ceiling for online market share is estimated at 25% of U.S. retail sales (excluding auto and gas).
• U.S. online retail sales are expected to grow from $390 billion in 2016 to:
  • $445 billion in 2017
  • $615 billion in 2020
  • $1.05 trillion in 2026
  • Over $1 trillion by 2027

7. Amazon's Dominance

• Amazon is capturing more than 60% of online sales growth in 2016.
• Its online market share is expected to rise from 34.2% in 2016 to 53.5% in 2027.
• Amazon's GMV (1P+3P) is projected to more than double by 2020, reaching $279 billion.

8. Wal-Mart's Strategic Move

• Wal-Mart is scaling up its online business and is expected to reach $42 billion in online sales by 2022, growing at a 31% CAGR.
• It aims to capture 6% of U.S. online sales within five years, putting pressure on other retailers.
• Its large store footprint and in-store pickup options give it an advantage in the online grocery space.

9. Challenges in Online Expansion

• Grocery remains a hard-to-crack category due to issues like last-mile delivery, high shipping costs, and product spoilage.
• Consumer trust is a major barrier, especially for fresh goods.
• While online grocery is gaining traction, it is expected to have a low market share, likely not exceeding mid- to high-single digits.

Conclusion

The U.S. online retail market is growing rapidly, driven by both new users and increased frequency of online transactions. Traditional retailers are under pressure to adapt or risk obsolescence, while Amazon and Wal-Mart are leading the charge in capturing market share. Despite the challenges in categories like grocery, the shift to online shopping is expected to continue, with significant implications for the future of retail.