2023-11-23-高盛-2024全球市场展望_18页_270kb

报告摘要

Goldman Sachs 2024 Global Markets Outlook Summary

Timeframe: December 2023

Parking the Plane
- Inflation nearing target, no US recession expected (application to most developed and emerging markets).
- Markets well-priced for soft landing, asymmetries in tail risks.
- Cash focus reduced due to normalized yields, shifted to balanced portfolios.
The Great Escape
- Escaped liquidity trap and low-yield environments; real yields back to pre-GFC levels.
- Normalized investment environment with positive real expected returns across assets.
- Higher yields now embedded in markets, requiring disciplined capital allocation.
Loosening Inflation Constraint
- Disinflation ongoing, easing policy focus on inflation; friendlier Fed potentially later in 2024.
- Scope for weak "Fed put" if growth shocks materialize.
- Timeline for cuts dependent on inflation progress.
US Exceptionalism (Growth)
- US growth resilience amid high rates contrasts with other regions.
- GDP forecasts above consensus driven by policy positioning and global convergence.
- USD strength pressures reduced if non-US outperforms.
Dark Side of Higher for Longer
- Vulnerable EM sovereigns and frontier markets under high US rates.
- Sectoral risks in US (credit, housing, banks) and fiscal risks with elections.
- Japan's policy dilemmas from strong USD and high yields.
Valuing Duration
- Bonds as recession hedges, especially in inverted yield curves or growth-dominated scenarios.
- Forward rates less inverted now, improving prospects for longer duration positions.
- Growth-focused Fed could amplify bond-correlation with equities.
Smaller Carry Cushion
- Carry spreads tightened due to higher yields; gaps likely driven by directional views.
- Regional events (Mexico NAR, China CNY, oil) provide tail-exposure opportunities.
- Mortgage-backed securities highlight US rate volatility risk.
Equities - Yield and Valuations
- Cash yields pressure equity returns; valuations outside US megacaps less stretched.
- AI and cyclical sectors poised to benefit if delta between expected/actual growth grows.
- Mega-caps face valuation drag vs alternatives, though strong balance sheets sustain performance.
EM - Narrow Outperformance Limits
- EM localized resilience neutralized by tight valuations and risks (Fed policy, Chinese growth).
- Broader gains reliant on Fed easing or China cyclical upturn.
- Opportunities confined to distressed credits or specific currencies/emerging pockets.
Balancing Portfolios
- Tail risks across asset classes mean non-cash allocation now more beneficial than cash.
- No single asset dominates all scenarios; key exposures: duration for recession, energy for disruption, equities for faster disinflation.
- Market faith in the core narrative (growth+disinflation) may trigger best opportunities.