20230802-紫金天风-钢材周报_悬而未决_31页_3mb

• 报告作者: 李文涛
• 从业资格证号: F3050524
• 交易咨询证号: Z0015640
• 研究助理: 吕双
• 审核: 肖兰兰
• 日期: 2023/08/02
• 核心观点: 偏多本周唐山环保限产高炉复产，铁水产量可能上升；成材需求弱于预期，库存压力尚可；全年平控政策或致钢厂减产，建议逢低做多远月01卷螺差及钢厂利润；反套风险较高。

Market Analysis Summary:

• Iron water production: Expected to rise in August due to resumed high-oven production in Tangshan, up from July levels.
• Electric furnace capacity: Limited due to profit losses, with usage unlikely to increase significantly.
• Finished goods inventory: Near-year-high but manageable; steel rod and coil stocks declining in factories, contributing to accumulated inventory pressure.
• Demand: Weaker in current period due to weather impacts but steady outlook for second half; overseas markets show mixed prices, with Chinese exports rising.
• Trading strategy: Recommend buying long-term contracts like 01 month roll-hedge and钢厂利润 (steel firm profit) for potential gains; cautious on reverse carry trades (反套) due to high risks.