世界发展银行-Tajikistan-Country-Economic-Update,-Summer-2021---Rebounding-Economy,-Challenges-Remain_30页_4mb

报告摘要

Tajikistan Country Economic Update Summer 2021: Rebounding Economy, Challenges Remain

Core Content

The Tajikistan Country Economic Update (CEU) Summer 2021 highlights the country's economic recovery from the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, while also identifying ongoing challenges that could affect future growth and stability. The report provides an overview of key macroeconomic indicators, fiscal and monetary policies, labor and poverty conditions, and the epidemiological situation and vaccination progress in Tajikistan.

Main Points

Economic Growth and Inflation

Economic Recovery: After a slowdown in 2020, Tajikistan's GDP grew at an annual rate of 8.7% in the first half of 2021, rebounding to pre-pandemic levels.
Sector Contributions: The industry and construction sectors were the main drivers of growth, with industry expanding by 23.4% and construction by 22.1%. Agriculture also grew by 8.1%, while the services sector nearly recovered to pre-pandemic levels.
Inflation: Inflation peaked at 10.1% in March 2021 due to rising fuel and food prices, but moderated to 9.0% in June 2021. Non-food inflation was 8.4%, while services inflation was 5.1%.
Import Prices: Global demand for fuel, food, and supply chain bottlenecks are expected to continue pushing up import prices.

Current Account, Exports and FDI

Current Account: Tajikistan's current account shifted to a surplus of 4.1% of GDP in 2020, primarily due to surging precious metals exports.
Exports: Precious metals remained the main export, reaching $709 million in the first half of 2021, with minerals and textiles also showing growth.
Imports: Total imports rose to $1.85 billion in the first half of 2021, with machinery, non-precious metals, and transport vehicles being the main categories.
FDI: Foreign direct investment (FDI) fell by 47% in 2020 but recovered by 43.7% in the first half of 2021. Mining accounted for two-thirds of FDI, followed by transport and construction. China is the largest FDI source, contributing three-fourths of all investments, while Russia accounts for 7%.

Labor, Employment and Poverty

Labor Market: The labor market was severely affected in early 2020, with joblessness spiking. However, employment levels rebounded in the latter half of 2020 and early 2021.
Poverty: Lower remittances and falling real wages are expected to have increased the poverty rate in 2020. Poor households rely heavily on remittances, with over 80% of recipients using them for food and essentials.
Food Insecurity: Food consumption declined in early 2020, with over 35% of households reporting children eating fewer than three meals. Food security improved by early 2021, with local shortages reported by less than 1% of respondents.
Healthcare Access: Access to medical care was a challenge, with 15-25% of households unable to access needed care. Public health campaigns increased risk-reducing behaviors like mask wearing and social distancing.

Fiscal and Debt Policies

Fiscal Policy: The fiscal stance was contractionary in the first half of 2021, with the fiscal deficit decreasing to 1.5% of GDP from 3.1% in 2020.
Revenues: Tax collections increased by over 30% in the first half of 2021, reaching TJS 9.4 billion. Social contributions and mining royalties were key contributors.
Government Spending: Spending increased across all sectors, with social outlays and infrastructure projects receiving the most attention. Expenditure to GDP ratio rose to 32% from 30.7%.
Debt: Public debt remained at $3.2 billion, or 50% of GDP, by the end of March 2021. Debt is predominantly concessional, with commercial loans accounting for 15.4%, including a $500 million Eurobond issued in 2017. China remains the largest creditor.

Key Risks and Challenges

Vaccination Progress: By June 2021, 151,338 people had received their first dose, and 24,408 had received both. The NDVP aims to cover a large proportion of the population, but delivery timelines are uncertain.
Global Pandemic Impact: Global economic conditions, especially new pandemic waves and the Delta variant, pose downside risks to Tajikistan's recovery.
Structural Challenges: Inefficient state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and challenges in the business environment continue to hinder long-term development.
Climate Change: Natural disasters and temperature anomalies may affect economic activity and agricultural output.

Focus Section: Epidemiological Situation and Vaccination

Vaccination Rollout: Tajikistan launched its National Deployment and Vaccination Plan (NDVP) in March 2021 after receiving 192,000 doses from COVAX.
Vaccination Priorities: The priority groups for vaccination include healthcare workers, elderly, and high-risk individuals.
Public Health Campaigns: The Mobile Engage initiative increased awareness and risk-reducing behaviors, such as mask wearing and reduced travel.
Vaccination Hesitancy: Reasons for not getting vaccinated include lack of information, skepticism, and concerns about side effects.

Conclusion

Tajikistan's economy showed strong recovery in the first half of 2021, driven by precious metals exports, private investment, and gradual relaxation of lockdown measures. However, persistent challenges in vaccination, fiscal sustainability, structural inefficiencies, and climate risks remain. The government's fiscal and monetary policies have contributed to stabilization, but long-term growth will depend on continued policy support, improved business environment, and effective vaccine distribution.