2017年-世界发展银行全球_Tajikistan_Country_Economic_Update_Fall_2017___Heightened_Vulnerabilities_Despite_Sustained_Growth_35页_1mb

Tajikistan Country Economic Update: Fall 2017 Summary

Core Content

This report provides an overview of Tajikistan's socio-economic developments, macroeconomic policies, and structural reforms in the fall of 2017. It highlights the country's economic growth, fiscal management challenges, and the impact of external and internal factors on its development trajectory.

Main Points

Economic Growth and Inflation

• Real GDP Growth: Strong growth of 6.8% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2017, consistent with the previous year.
• Drivers of Growth: Improved net exports due to increased demand for mineral resources, and rising remittances that supported private consumption.
• Industrial Output: The largest contributor to growth, with a 22% year-on-year increase, led by extractives, manufacturing, and electricity production.
• Agriculture: Grew by 6.1% year-on-year, the second-largest contributor, though slightly less than in 2016 due to weather conditions.
• Construction Sector: Contribution to growth was dampened by a 28% year-on-year decline in foreign-financed public investment.
• Inflation: Consumer price inflation reached 6.7% in September 2017, close to the previous year's level. Inflationary pressures were driven by the monetization of the banking sector bailout and currency depreciation.

Fiscal and Debt Policies

• Fiscal Consolidation: Tajikistan pursued fiscal consolidation in 2017 following a significant expansion in 2016, aiming to rebuild weakened fiscal buffers.
• Fiscal Deficit: A baseline fiscal deficit of around 2.5% of GDP was projected, in line with the approved budget.
• Debt Management: The country faced a heightened debt burden, with the potential for a second-round bank bailout increasing fiscal pressure.
• Public Debt Composition: Public and publicly-guaranteed debt (PPG Debt) was a major component, with a notable portion from the Eurobond issuance in September 2017.

External Sector

• Current Account Surplus: Improved to a surplus of 1.2% of GDP in the first half of 2017, compared to a deficit of 4.9% in the same period of 2016.
• Imports and Exports: Merchandise imports declined by 17.5% year-on-year, while exports grew by over 60%, driven by minerals and textiles.
• FDI Inflows: Declined to 1.9% of GDP in the first half of 2017, mainly concentrated in the mining, transport, and manufacturing sectors.
• International Reserves: Rose to 5.6 months of import cover, but this was due to one-off effects rather than sustained economic improvement.

Financial Sector

• Distress: The financial sector remains in crisis, with non-performing loans (NPLs) at over 50% of total loans.
• Capital Adequacy: Improved from 15.1% to 19.4% but did not resolve the sector's underlying issues.
• Lending and Deposits: Total lending contracted by 4% year-on-year, and deposits fell by 2% in somoni terms and 13% in USD terms.
• Interest Rates: Lending interest rates rose to 32.6% in June 2017, making credit more expensive and directing resources to riskier projects.
• Deposit Penetration: Low compared to regional averages, at 16% of GDP, reflecting poor financial sector performance and government interference.

Social Sector

• Poverty Reduction: The official poverty rate fell from 31.3% in 2015 to 30.3% in 2016, and further decline was expected in 2017.
• Wage Income: Remained the main driver of poverty reduction, with an average nominal wage increase of 26.4% in July 2017.
• Employment: Agriculture still absorbs the majority of the labor force (45.3% of total employment), followed by education and healthcare (18.5% and 9.8%, respectively).
• Unemployment: The official rate remained at 2.3%, but ILO estimates suggested a higher rate of 10.8% in 2016.
• Non-Monetary Poverty: Linked to insufficient public infrastructure and services, as shown in the Listening to Tajikistan (L2T) survey.

Key Challenges and Risks

• Fiscal Vulnerabilities: The financial sector crisis and rising public debt threaten fiscal stability and economic growth.
• External Risks: Uncertainty in the global market and potential tightening of migration policies in Russia could impact remittances and economic performance.
• Policy Framework: A weak domestic policy framework and inadequate institutional reforms hinder sustained growth and effective poverty reduction.
• Business Environment: High regulatory costs and limited access to credit continue to challenge the private sector and investment climate.

Structural Reforms and Regional Cooperation

• CASA-1000 Project: Tajikistan actively supports the project, with Dushanbe hosting a summit and ongoing cooperation with project partners.
• Uzbekistan Relations: Improved with the resumption of air travel, new investments, and mutual cooperation agreements.
• BRICS Summit: Tajikistan participated as an observer, highlighting its growing ties with China and other emerging economies.
• CAREC 2030 Strategy: Adopted at the 16th Ministerial Conference, aiming to support broader development areas including education, health, and tourism.

Conclusion

Tajikistan experienced strong economic growth in 2017, driven by improved exports and remittances, and a decline in poverty. However, the country faces significant challenges, including a fragile financial sector, high public debt, and an inadequate macroeconomic policy framework. Continued structural reforms and improved governance are essential to sustain growth and reduce poverty effectively. Regional cooperation and investment from major partners like China and Russia are crucial for long-term economic stability and development.