20230928-大越期货-PTA_MEG早报_21页_920kb

PTA Daily Summary:

• Fundamental: Oil prices rose overnight; PX supply rebounded due to higher operating rates; PTA processing fees remain low, with increased 10月 maintenance plans, but inventory accumulation expected. Neutral outlook amid concerns of unexpected losses.
• Basis: Spot price 6170, 01 contract basis 24 (contango), neutral.
• Inventory: Average holding period 475 days (slight decrease), still positive.
• Price Chart: 20-day MA flat, closing below it, bearish.
• Main Traders' Position: Net long, bearing market tension, but lighter positions advised.
• Outlook: Cost support from oil, but supply-demand factors like potential检修 and holiday volatility create uncertainty. Overall neutral, with light positions recommended over the weekend.

MEG Daily Summary:

• Fundamental: Short-term profitability declines for various production processes; inventory remains high (1154万吨), but some capacity reduction ahead from maintenance. Neutral outlook.
• Basis: Spot price 4050, 01 contract basis -89 (backwardation), bearish.
• Inventory: Regional stock 10432万吨 (decrease slight), still elevated.
• Price Chart: 20-day MA flat, closing below it, bearish.
• Main Traders' Position: Net short, increasing risks.
• Outlook: Supply contraction from capacity cuts in late September offers support, but weak demand and high stockpiles lead to mixed sentiment. Short-term weak volatility expected due to industry factors.

Common Analysis: Market sentiment is cautious ahead of the holiday period; light position management advised due to potential external cost fluctuations. Both commodities show neutral-to-bearish cues with structured uncertainties.