2026年中国消费行业趋势洞察报告-二季度消费脉搏_49页_6mb

China Consumer Pulse 2Q26 Summary

Core Content

The China Consumer Pulse 2Q26 report highlights the mixed performance of the Chinese consumer market, noting that overall consumption remains under pressure despite some improvements in confidence and inflation indicators. The report analyzes key sectors including Apparel, Sportswear, Alcohol, Beauty, Travel, Luxury, and Autos, both in mass and premium categories, and evaluates the implications for Japanese consumer companies.

Main Points

Overall Consumer Trends

• GDP growth moderated to 4.3% YoY in Q2 from 5.0% in Q1.
• Retail sales slowed to +0.2% YoY, with consumer confidence gradually improving from late 2025 levels.
• CPI remained positive (c.1%), easing concerns about deflation.
• Premium and Luxury segments outperformed, showing relative resilience.
• Big ticket goods and Autos remained weak, with continued caution for H2.

Beverages

• Moutai's Fetien saw continued wholesale price increases, with a second ex-factory price hike in Q2.
• Fetien pricing rose +13% from the trough, and other high-end variants increased +17-30%.
• Beer sales improved, with +2% YoY growth.
• Moutai is the top pick in China Beverages, followed by Nongfu Spring.

Apparel and Sportswear

• Apparel and Sportswear outperformed broader retail, driven by online channels.
• 3P Online sales grew 10% in Q2, outpacing the 2% growth in online retail overall.
• Offline trends remained muted, with Pou Sheng down -3% and offline retail down -1%.
• Nike showed +3% sell-through but expects negative total growth due to reduced sell-in.
• Adidas grew rapidly (+32%) and gained market share.
• Lululemon experienced marketplace declines due to the PFAS controversy, but the situation is expected to normalize.
• Emerging brands grew at double-digit rates.

Hotels

• Chinese hotel RevPAR continued its recovery in Q2, with demand growth driving performance.
• Luxury and Economy segments showed the strongest RevPAR growth, while other segments struggled.
• IHG has the most China exposure among asset-light hotel names.
• The 3-year underperformance of China has reduced its impact on fee revenues.
• RevPAR underperformance over the last two years means the country is a smaller component of fee revenues, but still a key part of the pipeline.

Luxury Goods

• China luxury demand is stabilizing but not yet reaccelerating.
• Value-consciousness and K-shaped polarisation remain defining features.
• Jewellery outperformed soft luxury and other categories.
• Affluent consumers drive demand for elevated products, bespoke offerings, and high-ticket purchases.
• Burberry is noted as a brand-specific turnaround.
• Chinese consumers continue to arbitrage across Mainland China, Hong Kong, Japan, and Korea based on FX dynamics and relative pricing.

Autos

• Auto sales declined in Q2, influenced by the expiration of trade-in subsidies and a 5% purchase tax hike on EVs.
• Passenger vehicle sales dropped -20% YoY, down from -17% in Q1.
• EV sales (BEV & PHEV) moderated to -7% YoY, compared to -23% in Q1.
• EV penetration reached 59.9% in Q2, up from 51.4% in Q2 2025.
• Premium brands (Audi, BMW, Mercedes) saw significant declines, with Porsche down -41% YoY.
• Mass market volume also remained weak at -21% YoY.
• BYD topped PV sales with 983k units, while Geely Group was second with 959k units.

Cosmetics

• Beauty e-commerce GMV grew +13% YoY.
• Tracked beauty companies grew +1.3% and expanded +62bps in market share.
• Monthly trends were volatile, with April seeing a -10.0% YoY decline, May rebounding to +6.2% YoY, and June declining -3.2% YoY.
• 6.18 shopping festival had a peak impact, with online beauty sales declining -10.5%.
• Tracked companies outperformed in June, gaining +72bps in market share.

Japanese Consumer Brands in China

• Uniqlo China is in a "scrap-and-build" phase, reducing its store count from around 1,000 to below 900.
• Muji has a stable store base and growth is driven by store productivity, e-commerce, and FX tailwinds.
• Asics is experiencing high growth in China, with LFL store productivity rising faster than new store growth.
• Sushiro expanded to over 110 locations in China, indicating a positive trajectory.

Investment Implications

Global Hotels & Leisure

• Chinese hotel market continues to recover, with demand growth and slowing supply driving performance.
• RevPAR growth was strongest in Luxury and Economy segments.
• IHG has the most China exposure but a reduced share of fee revenues due to past underperformance.
• OTA companies have limited domestic market success, but international businesses remain strong.
• Airbnb is well-positioned to benefit from outbound travel.

Global Apparel & Sportswear

• Secular trends in health and wellness, casualization, and government initiatives are expected to support Sportswear growth.
• Mainstream consumer spending remains soft, affecting both Western and Chinese brands.
• Nike is in a reset phase, with planned exit of partner-operated online expected to lead to declines.
• Adidas, Lululemon, On, and Hoka are gaining market share with strong product and brand resonance.

China Premium Beverages

• CRBeer and Tsingtao H-share are rated Outperform.
• Tsingtao A-Share and Bud APAC are rated Market-Perform.
• Moutai is rated Outperform, while Wuliangye is Underperform.
• Nongfu Spring is rated Outperform, with Eastroc A-Share and H-Share rated Market-Perform.

Global Luxury Goods

• Global luxury demand may be a turning point, with positive performance and improved profit in the first half of 2026.
• Richemont is the top pick, with jewellery momentum expected to persist.
• Brunello Cucinelli is favored for its quality and potential for mean reversion.
• Hermès is difficult to be positive on in the short term, but high single-digit growth could be forgiven.
• Burberry is on track for a turnaround, with improved brand momentum and full-price sell-through.

European Food and HPC with Premium China Exposure

• L'Oréal is rated Market-Perform with a target price of EUR 405.
• Beiersdorf is rated Outperform with a target price of EUR 95.
• Unilever is rated Outperform with a target price of £58.

China Autos

• A cautious outlook is maintained due to subsidy expiration and tax hikes.
• Wholesale volumes are expected to reach c.29 mn units, down 3-5% YoY.
• Domestic retail demand is forecasted at 20-21 mn units, declining 10-12% YoY.
• EV exports are expected to grow 40-50% YoY, reaching 8.5-9 mn units.
• Long-term EV growth remains intact, with domestic EV sales expected to grow 3-5% YoY and penetration to reach 62%.
• BYD and Xiaomi are rated Outperform, while XPeng, Li Auto, and NIO are Market-Perform.
• Geely is rated Outperform, and Great Wall, GAC, and SAIC are Market-Perform.

Key Insights

• Premium and Luxury segments are resilient amid a weak consumer backdrop.
• Online consumption outperformed offline, with 3P Online growth at 10%.
• Consumer behavior is divergent, with higher-income consumers driving premium demand.
• Outbound travel and international markets are key growth areas for some companies.
• Market share shifts are evident, with emerging brands and specific categories gaining traction.
• Valuation and growth expectations vary significantly across sectors and brands.

Summary Table

Conclusion

The report emphasizes the resilience of premium and luxury sectors despite the broader weak consumer environment in China. It suggests that value-consciousness and discretionary spending among higher-income consumers continue to drive demand in these segments. The cautious outlook for the autos sector is due to subsidy expiration, tax hikes, and weak consumer sentiment. Japanese consumer brands are at varied stages of development, with Uniqlo and Asics showing positive growth. The global luxury sector is viewed as a potential investment opportunity with improved performance and lower valuations compared to historical levels.