2016-04-22-前瞻产业研究院-2016亚洲经济前瞻指数_24页_1mb

报告摘要

2016年亚洲经济前瞻指数报告总结

核心结论

亚洲经济全面放缓：2016年亚洲经济前瞻指数从95.4降至45.4，预计经济、就业、贸易均大幅减速，反映各界对经济增长的信心严重不足。
全球影响显著：亚洲开放型经济受全球经济疲软冲击，贸易增长势头减弱，但对外投资将保持稳定上升趋势。
行业前景分化：新能源、养老健康、医药、新材料和互联网+等新兴产业增长前景较好，而传统行业面临较大挑战。
风险与挑战：亚洲经济面临系统性货币贬值预期、金融市场波动、大宗商品价格下跌、美元加息等多重风险。
机遇与创新：巴黎气候协议、绿色发展和技术创新为亚洲提供新机遇，但创新能力仍落后于北美和欧洲。

主要特点

经济增长：亚洲整体增长率在全球居首，但结构性调整压力增大，主要经济体增长乏力，新兴市场分化。
对外投资：43.4%受访者预期2016年亚洲对外投资增长加快，稳中有升。
贸易趋势：亚洲外贸形势严峻，中国成为全球最重要的外资来源地，但需扩大内需以平衡增长。
投资机制：“一带一路”和亚太自由贸易区(FIPAAP)是最具潜力的贸易投资机制。
产业前景：新能源、养老健康和医药产业最受看好，其他新兴技术领域也表现活跃。
创新环境：亚洲创新力不足，增长瓶颈主要在于创新环境优化和技术进步。

建议

加强亚洲宏观政策协调，完善风险管理机制。
推进供给侧结构性改革，释放经济增长新动能。
提升亚洲创新能力，加强知识产权保护和人才培养。
加快人民币国际化步伐，发挥好人民币在全球经济中的作用。
参与“一带一路”建设，共同探索跨境合作新模式。


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# 2016 Asian Economy Forward-looking Indicator Summary

## Key Findings
- Significant slowdown in Asian economic growth, employment and trade: The index dropped sharply from 95.4 to 45.4, signaling a severe lack of confidence in Asia's growth.
- Global impact: Asian open economy is affected by global slowdown; trade growth has weakened; outbound investment is expected to increase steadily.
- Promising industries: New energy, pension healthcare, and pharmaceuticals are considered the most growth-oriented, while structural reforms and technological innovation will be crucial in the long term.
- Risk and challenges: Currency depreciation risk, financial market volatility, falling commodity prices, and US dollar hikes are key concerns.
- Opportunities: Climate agreements like the Paris Climate Agreement offer new opportunities through green development and sustainable practices.

## Highlights
1. **Economic Growth**: While Asia’s growth rate remains highest globally, structural changes are underway, shifting from capital-intensive growth to knowledge-based and service-oriented.
2. **Outbound Investment**: A notable increase in Asian capital output is expected, with outbound investment to increase steadily.
3. **Trade Trend**: Regional trade will experience moderate growth with policy reforms, but global exports have significantly decreased due to global economic uncertainty.
4. **Investment Mechanisms**: "Belt and Road Initiative" and the FTAA are regarded as key drivers for future growth.
5. **Industry Outlook**: Green transition and the digital economy will lead Asian development, with young tech companies focusing on e-commerce, AI, and fintech.
6. **Innovation Environment**: The challenge of innovation is becoming evermore difficult, requiring better infrastructure and policies to foster innovation-driven growth.

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