到2030年满足中国电力系统灵活性需求-99页_9mb

Meeting Power System Flexibility Needs in China by 2030

A Market-Based Policy Toolkit for the 14th Five-Year Plan

Executive Summary

China's power system is undergoing a significant transformation driven by the rapid deployment of variable renewable energy (VRE) such as wind and solar, and the electrification of various sectors (buildings, industry, transportation). The country is surpassing its clean energy capacity targets six years ahead of schedule. By 2030, renewables are projected to supply 39% of China's electricity generation, up from 15% in 2023. This transition presents challenges to system flexibility, leading to higher short-term ramping needs—a 200% increase by 2030.

Power market reforms aim to enhance flexibility through mechanisms like spot markets, capacity payments, and demand-response programs. The IEA analysis shows that non-fossil resources could meet nearly 60% of flexibility needs in 2030 if market reforms are implemented. Key barriers include rigid medium-to-long-term contracts, fragmented markets, and limited price signals reflecting real-time flexibility needs.

Main Challenges and Objectives

• VRE Integration: Solar PV alone could triple short-term flexibility needs by 2030, requiring enhanced grid infrastructure and market designs.
• Market Barriers: Over 90% of electricity is traded under fixed contracts, limiting response to system needs; only four provinces have operational spot markets nationwide.
• Regional Disparities: Northwest regions face high VRE penetration challenges while Eastern regions lag in market maturity.
• Coal Phase-Out: Coal will transition from energy provider to flexibility support, requiring retrofits and new market-based revenues.

Key Recommendations

1. Medium-to-Long-Term (MLT) Markets Reform

• Increase price volatility limits and contract granularity.
• Enable non-physical execution of inter-provincial contracts.
• Reduce MLT requirements for commercial customers.

2. Spot Market Development

• Increase price range fluctuation, allow negative prices.
• Facilitate participation of distributed resources and aggregators.
• Implement continuous real-time trading and intraday markets.

3. Ancillary Services Market Expansion

• Standardize services nationwide.
• Adopt market-based pricing with performance incentives.
• Remove barriers for demand-side aggregation.

4. Retail Market Reforms

• Enhance time-of-use (TOU) tariffs with higher peak-to-valley ratios.
• Enable spot-linked contracts for large consumers.
• Promote residential dynamic pricing aligned with VRE patterns.

Future Pathway

The transformation requires a coordinated approach balancing centralized planning and market mechanisms. A three-step implementation could achieve:

1. Mandatory flexibility demand assessments by end-use sector
2. Tailored policies based on regional characteristics
3. Continuous performance monitoring through key indicators like VRE integration rates and spot market participation.

China's journey toward flexibility depends on institutional capacity, data transparency, and sustained policy commitment—elements essential for meeting both energy security and climate goals through 2030.