2016年-世界发展银行全球_Africas_Pulse_No13_April_2016_68页_5mb

报告摘要

Africa's Pulse Summary

Core Content

Africa's Pulse is a report by the World Bank that analyzes key issues shaping the economic future of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). It highlights the challenges and opportunities facing the region in 2016, particularly in the context of global economic developments and internal policy priorities.

Main Points

Economic Growth in 2015 and 2016

Growth in 2015: Sub-Saharan Africa's GDP growth slowed to an estimated 3.0%, down from 4.5% in 2014. This was driven by low and volatile commodity prices, weak global growth, rising borrowing costs, and adverse domestic developments.
Growth in 2016: The region's growth is expected to remain subdued at 3.3%, with some bright spots such as Côte d'Ivoire, Kenya, and Rwanda, which experienced robust and broad-based growth due to infrastructure spending, strong consumer demand, and expanding services sectors.
Projection for 2017–18: Growth is expected to rise to 4.5%, reflecting a gradual improvement in the region's largest economies—Angola, Nigeria, and South Africa—as commodity prices stabilize and growth-supporting policies are implemented.

Commodity Price Shock

The decline in oil and commodity prices significantly worsened the terms of trade for SSA, with an estimated 16% deterioration in 2016.
Commodity exporters, especially oil exporters, faced large terms-of-trade losses, which lowered economic activity by 0.5% from the baseline and weakened the current account and fiscal balance by 4 and 2 percentage points, respectively.
Oil prices fell by 67% from US$108/barrel in June 2014 to US$38/barrel in December 2015, with non-energy commodities also declining, particularly metals like iron ore, platinum, and copper.

Risks to the Outlook

Risks remain tilted to the downside, including a sharper slowdown in China, further commodity price declines, delays in policy adjustments, worsening drought conditions, and political and security uncertainties.
A synchronous slowdown in the BRICS countries could have pronounced global spillover effects, especially if combined with financial stress.
Fiscal and reserve buffers in many emerging and developing countries have been depleted, limiting their ability to use countercyclical measures during downturns.

Policy Challenges

Adjusting to lower commodity prices: Countries must reorient economic strategies to sustainable and inclusive growth.
Addressing economic vulnerabilities: This includes reforming land markets, urban regulations, and coordinating early infrastructure investments.
Developing new growth sources: Urbanization is seen as a major opportunity for economic diversification, but it requires structural reforms and better urban planning.

Key Opportunities

Urbanization: Offers a potential springboard for economic diversification, but cities must become more livable, connected, and affordable to attract investment and improve productivity.
Institutional reforms: Needed to allocate land efficiently, fragmented development, and limit productivity.
Infrastructure investment: Must be coordinated early and scaled up to support urban growth and economic activity.

Recommendations

Reform urban land markets: Simplify property rights, strengthen city plans, and ensure enforcement.
Coordinate early infrastructure investments: Focus on scaling up and aligning investments with urban development needs.
Strengthen institutions: Provide the bedrock for urban development, ensuring compliance, investment, and economic density.

Conclusion

Africa's economic future is shaped by low and volatile commodity prices, weak global growth, and internal policy challenges. While growth remains lackluster, some countries are experiencing positive trends. The key to sustainable growth lies in economic diversification, urban development, and policy reforms that address structural inefficiencies and support investment.

Key Information

GDP Growth (2015): 3.0% (down from 4.5% in 2014).
Projected GDP Growth (2016): 3.3%.
Projected GDP Growth (2017–18): 4.5%.
Terms-of-Trade Deterioration (2016): 16%.
Commodity Exports Share: Over 60% of SSA exports are commodities (fuels, ore, and metals), compared to 16% for manufactured goods and 10% for agricultural products.
Current Account Deficit (2015): Worsened in oil exporters, especially Angola and Republic of Congo.
External Debt Levels (2015): Median at 30.1% of GDP, up from 23.9% in 2014.
Key Contributors: Punam Chuhan-Pole (Team Lead), Cesar Calderon, Gerard Kambou, Sebastien Boreux, Mapi M. Buitano, Vijdan Korman, Megumi Kubota, Rafael M. Lopez-Monti.
License: Available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license.

Figures and Tables

Figure 1.1: Global Growth and Contribution by Country Groups, 2005–15.
Figure 1.3: Cumulative Variation in Commodity Prices since June 2014.
Figure 1.4: GDP Growth in SSA, by Country Groups.
Figure 1.5: GDP Growth in Nigeria.
Figure 1.6: GDP Growth in South Africa.
Figure 1.7: Capital Flows to SSA.
Figure 1.8: Sovereign Spread (EMBIG), Basis Points.
Figure 2.1: Episodes of Plunging Oil Prices.
Figure 2.2: Real GDP Response to Commodity Price Changes.
Figure 2.3: Current Account Balance Response to Commodity Price Changes.
Figure 2.4: Fiscal Balance Response to Commodity Price Changes.
Figure 3.1: Urbanization and Economic Development.
Figure B3.1.1: A "Local" City: High Urban Wage Costs and Lack of Tradables Production.
Figure B3.3.1: Africa's Urbanization at Lower Income Levels.
Figure 3.2: African Cities: Population Density Gradients, 2012.
Figure 3.3: African Cities: Economic Density, 2014.
Figure 3.4: Connections among People as a Function of Population Near the City Center.
Figure 3.5: Leapfrog Development in African Cities, 1990–2000 and 2000–10.
Figure 3.6: Paved Roads and the Share of Urban Land in Africa and Selected Countries.
Figure 3.7: Living Costs in African Cities Compared with Cities in Other Countries, 2011.
Figure 3.8: Share of Urban Household Budgets Spent or Needed for Transport in 11 African Countries.
Figure 3.9: Median Manufacturing Wages in African Cities Compared with Cities in Other Developing Countries.
Figure 3.10: Size of Urban Firms in Africa and Other Developing Regions.
Figure 3.11: Formal Jobs in Downtown Kampala, Lusaka, and Kigali.
Figure 3.12: Shares of Firms in Internationally Traded and Nontradable Sectors for Selected Cities.
Table B1.1.1: Testing the Twin Deficits Hypothesis in SSA.
Table 2.1: Episodes of Plunging Oil Prices.
Table 2.2: Terms-of-Trade Deterioration in SSA.
Table B2.1.1: Change in Crude Oil Price, 2015–16.
Table B2.1.2: Episodes of Plunging Oil Prices.

Summary of Boxes

Box 1.1: Twin Deficits in Sub-Saharan Africa
Discusses the relationship between current account and fiscal deficits and how they affect economic stability.
Box 1.2: Driving Diversification in Africa through Trade and Competition
Highlights the role of trade and competition in economic diversification and growth.
Box 2.1: Commodity Price Shock for the Macroeconomic Simulations
Explains the macroeconomic impact of commodity price shocks using simulation models.
Box 3.1: Low Expected Scale and Returns: Why African Cities Are Locked into Nontradables
Analyzes the reasons behind the limited scale and returns in African cities, particularly in nontradable sectors.
Box 3.2: Low Expectations for Urban Form and Function: The Vicious Circle of Costly and Unlivable Cities
Describes the vicious cycle of costly and unlivable cities and its impact on urban development.
Box 3.3: Low Capital Investment in Sub-Saharan African Cities during a Period of Rapid Urban Growth
Examines the lack of capital investment in African cities despite rapid urbanization.
Box 3.4: Leveraging Land Values to Finance Much-Needed Urban Infrastructure in Africa's Cities
Proposes using land values to finance urban infrastructure, highlighting the potential benefits of such an approach.