2017年-世界发展银行全球_Africas_Pulse_No_15_April_2017_120页_11mb

Africa's Pulse Summary

Core Content

Africa's Pulse is a comprehensive report analyzing the economic developments and trends shaping the future of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The report highlights the region's economic performance, challenges, and the critical role of infrastructure in driving growth and development. It also examines the impact of global and regional factors on economic conditions, including commodity price fluctuations, exchange rate pressures, and public investment management.

Main Views and Key Information

Economic Growth Outlook

• 2017 Growth: Economic growth in SSA is projected to recover to 2.6% in 2017 after a sharp slowdown in 2016.
• 2018-19 Outlook: Growth is expected to continue improving, reaching an average of 2.9%.
• Regional Variability: Growth in the region is uneven, with the three largest economies—Angola, Nigeria, and South Africa—experiencing only modest rebounds.
• Non-Resource Countries: Countries like Ethiopia, Senegal, and Tanzania are expected to maintain strong growth due to domestic demand and public infrastructure investment.

Challenges to Growth

• Low Per Capita Growth: Despite regional growth, per capita GDP is projected to contract slightly in 2017 before rising modestly in 2018-19.
• High Poverty Rates: The region faces high poverty levels, necessitating more inclusive and sustainable growth strategies.
• Debt Sustainability: Public debt levels are rising, and many countries need to balance development spending with maintaining debt sustainability.
• Downside Risks: Externally, risks include tighter global financing conditions, weak commodity price improvements, and rising protectionism. Domestically, risks involve stalled reforms, security threats, and political uncertainty.

Infrastructure in SSA

• Performance Gaps: SSA lags behind other developing regions in infrastructure performance across all dimensions.
• Power Sector: Electricity-generating capacity per capita has remained stagnant for 20 years, with only 35% of the population having access.
• Transportation: Road and railroad densities are among the lowest in developing regions, with a decline observed between 1990 and 2011.
• Telecommunications: Significant improvements have been made, with the number of fixed and mobile phone lines per 1,000 people rising from 3 in 1990 to 736 in 2014. Internet users per 100 people increased from 1.3 in 2005 to 16.7 in 2015.
• Water and Sanitation: Access to safe water has increased from 51% in 1990 to 77% in 2015, but sanitation access remains low.

Growth Benefits of Infrastructure Improvement

• Potential Gains: Closing the infrastructure gap relative to the world median could increase GDP per capita growth by 1.7 percentage points annually, while closing the gap relative to top performers could raise it by 2.6 percentage points.
• Electricity and Roads: The largest potential benefits are from improving electricity-generating capacity and road network length.

Public Investment and PPPs

• Public Spending: Annual public infrastructure spending in SSA was 2% of GDP in 2009-15. Most spending was on roads (2/3), followed by electricity and water (1/6 each).
• PPP Projects: Public-private partnerships (PPPs) are a small market, with four countries (South Africa, Nigeria, Kenya, Uganda) accounting for 48% of projects over the past 25 years. The energy sector, especially renewables, is attracting more attention.
• Regulatory Frameworks: A robust institutional and regulatory environment is essential to attract private investment in infrastructure.
• Public Investment Management: Efficient public investment management is linked to better economic performance, lower but more effective public investment, and higher growth rates.

Key Sectors and Trends

Commodity Prices

• Oil Prices: Increased by 8% in early 2017, averaging nearly $53 per barrel, but remain constrained by high global inventories and U.S. shale oil production.
• Metal Prices: Rose by 35% from their 2015Q4 lows, driven by increased demand from China.
• Agricultural Prices: Broadly stable due to favorable growing conditions.

Exchange Market Pressures

• Factors: Exchange market pressures are influenced by fiscal imbalances, trade deficits, and capital outflows.
• Oil-Rich Countries: Face heightened pressures due to volatile oil revenues and fiscal adjustments.

Investment and Growth

• Investment Recovery: Investment growth is expected to recover gradually, but is constrained by foreign exchange liquidity and investor confidence.
• Commodity-Exporting Countries: Experience a cyclical rebound in investment, supported by rising commodity prices.
• Non-Resource Countries: Benefit from public investment in infrastructure, contributing to sustained growth.

Regional Integration and Market Fragmentation

• Deeper Integration: Regional integration is seen as a way to de-fragment markets and improve economic performance.
• PPP Financing: The Cascade Approach and the BOOST initiative are highlighted as tools for improving infrastructure financing and management.

Conclusion

Africa's Pulse underscores the need for structural reforms, improved governance, and increased investment in infrastructure to achieve more inclusive and sustainable growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. While global and regional conditions are showing signs of improvement, the region's economic recovery remains weak and uneven. Addressing the infrastructure gap, enhancing public investment efficiency, and fostering private sector participation are critical to unlocking growth potential.