2025-06-14-花旗集团-因德拉普拉斯特天然气公司（IGAS）_印德拉普拉斯塔天然气（IGAS.BO）_电动汽车风险似乎正在迅速消退_12页_430kb

IGL Research Summary

Date: June 15, 2025
Company: Indraprastha Gas (IGL)
Stock Symbol: IGAS.BO
Analyst Rating: BUY
Target Price: Rs250.00
Current Price: Rs199.45
Expected Share Price Return: 25.3%
Expected Dividend Yield: 2.4%
Expected Total Return: 27.8%

Analyst's Take

• EVs (Electric Vehicles) are gaining traction in Delhite transportation, but CNG (Compressed Natural Gas) adoption remains strong due to concerns over EV market growth.
• Policies in Delhi may change:
  • Consideration to revise regulations around CNG 3Ws and the DTC (Delhi Transport Corporation) bus fleet.
  • Recent Emission norms may boost CNG's role in Delhi.

🔍Key Points

1. EV Policy Changes & Opportunities:

   • Govt. potential policy change to re-assess EV transition timelines in Delhi.
   • CNG 3Ws policy may be withdrawn.
   • DTC fleet electrification is nearly complete, but inter-city gasification (using CNG) could accelerate.

2. Volume Growth Catalysts for IGL:

   • National policy support for CNG and pollution control.
   • Policy-led initiatives in Delhi, expanding CNG ecosystem, domestic PNG connections.
   • Industries mandated to shift to cleaner fuels.

3. Valuation:

   • Target Price raised to Rs250 based on March 2027 DCF analysis.
   • Considers IGL’s 50% stakes in MNGL (Maharashtra) and CUGL (Uttar Pradesh).

🧭Recommendations & Risks

📍 Recommendations:

• Maintain BUY rating with a target of Rs250 for FY2027E.
• Focus on growing CNG volumes through expansion and policy alignment.

🧱 Risks:

• Lower-than-expected CNG conversions or PNG infrastructure rollout.
• Competition from EV expansion slowing down volume growth.
• Reduction in domestic APM gas allocation.
• Regulatory hurdles in common carrier or tariff policies.

🔑Key Takeaways

• IGL maintains its “Buy” rating despite policy risks.
• Opportunities: inter-city bus gasification, DTC fleet electrification reversal, potential policy changes.
• Investment thesis supports volume and project growth through DCF valuation.

📑For reference

📧 Contact:

• Saurabh Handa: +91-22-6175-9858
• Prerna Goenka: prerna.goenka@citi.com
• Market Cap: Rs279,230 Cr. (US$3.24B)
• Source: Citi Research
  Disclaimer: Analyst certifications and other disclosures detailed in the report apply.