2026年欧洲与中亚经济展望_增长放缓与政策再平衡_80页_3mb

Europe & Central Asia Economic Update - April 2026

Core Content

This report provides an analysis of recent economic developments, policies, and outlook for the Europe and Central Asia (ECA) region in 2025 and 2026. It highlights the impact of external shocks, including trade policy uncertainty, geoeconomic fragmentation, and geopolitical tensions, on the region's economic performance and industrial policy landscape.

Main Points

Economic Performance in 2025

• GDP Growth: ECA's GDP growth slowed to 2.6% in 2025, down from 4% in 2024.
• Russia's Impact: Russia, the largest economy in the region, accounted for about 40% of ECA's output and saw a significant slowdown in growth, from 4.9% in 2024 to 1% in 2025.
• Other Economies: Excluding Russia, growth improved to 3.6%. Central Asia, Poland, and Türkiye contributed to this improvement.
• Central Asia: Recorded the fastest expansion in 14 years, with growth reaching 7% in 2025, driven by domestic consumption, infrastructure spending, and SOE investment.
• Uzbekistan: Growth accelerated to 7.7% in 2025, supported by higher gold prices, investment growth, and structural reforms.

Fiscal Policy

• Pro-cyclical Trends: Fiscal policies in most ECA countries remained pro-cyclical, leading to little change in deficits but increasing domestic demand pressures and inflation.
• Russia: Fiscal shortfalls increased due to lower oil and gas revenues and higher capital and defense spending.
• Poland: Deficit remained stable, with a focus on fiscal consolidation.
• Türkiye: Fiscal shortfall narrowed to below 3% of GDP due to improved tax collection and lower reconstruction spending.

Inflation Dynamics

• Stalled Disinflation: Median inflation in the region remained at 4.8% year-on-year in February 2026, with Central Asia experiencing the highest inflation at 8.1%.
• Regional Divergence: Inflation in Central Asia was driven by currency depreciation, procyclical fiscal policy, and supply chain disruptions. In contrast, inflation in Türkiye spiked again due to higher food prices.

Outlook for 2026

• Baseline Scenario: Growth is expected to slow significantly in 2026 due to a large but temporary increase in energy prices.
• Regional Growth: Real GDP growth is projected to weaken to 2.1% for the region as a whole, with Russia's growth expected to fall to 0.8%.
• Türkiye: Growth is projected to weaken to 2.8% in 2026 but may firm to 3.7% in 2027 with more accommodative policies.

Industrial Policy Overview

Industrial Policy Trends

• Post-2020 Surge: Industrial policy activity surged since 2020, initially driven by pandemic relief, but later shifting toward energy efficiency, supply-chain resilience, and national security.
• Most Policies Remain: Over a third of the policies enacted since 2020 are still in force, and in a third of the region's countries, the number of policy announcements has surpassed pre-pandemic levels.

Policy Focus

• Legacy Sectors: Most industrial policies target established sectors, particularly agriculture and food production, which account for nearly two-thirds of all policy announcements.
• High-Tech and Capital Goods: Only 10% of policies target high-tech or capital goods.
• Energy and SOEs: Russia and Kazakhstan are the only countries with explicit place-based industrial policies. Many ECA countries use state-owned enterprises (SOEs) as both conduits and targets of industrial policies, especially in energy, transport, and utilities.

Policy Tools

• Subsidies: Domestic subsidies are a substantial component of industrial policy in ECA, with the region now having the highest level among developing regions.
• Tariffs and Non-Tariff Measures: ECA countries rarely use tariffs as a policy tool. Instead, they rely more on non-tariff measures, export taxes, and export bans, with 60% of export measures in ECA (excluding Russia) being export bans and 80% in Russia involving taxes on grains.

Challenges and Concerns

• Effectiveness of Industrial Policies: The effectiveness of industrial policies in delivering sustained and cost-effective structural transformation is mixed. There are concerns about fiscal burdens, industrial failures, and negative spillovers.
• Legacy of Central Planning: Many ECA countries still face challenges from the transition to market economies, including SOE dominance and market distortions.
• Market Failures: Industrial policies can help address some market failures, but they are secondary to structural reforms. Contestable markets and supportive policies for trade and investment are essential for growth.

Key Recommendations

• Prioritize Structural Reforms: ECA countries should focus on ambitious structural reforms to modernize the business environment, catalyze entrepreneurship, and improve education and skills.
• Balance Industrial Policies: Industrial policies should be used as a supplementary tool, not a primary engine for development, and should be implemented with caution.
• Address Market Distortions: Governments need to ensure that industrial policies are well-designed and executed to avoid creating market distortions and inefficiencies.

Conclusion

The ECA region is facing significant economic and geopolitical challenges, which have tested its resilience. While industrial policies have increased in number and scope, their effectiveness in driving long-term growth and structural transformation remains uncertain. The region needs to focus on structural reforms and create more competitive markets to ensure sustainable economic development.