2023-03-29-莱坊-Australian_Prime_Residential_Review_Q1_2023_10页_3mb

Australian Prime Residential Market Review Q1 2023

Core Content Overview

The Australian Prime Residential Market Review Q1 2023 provides an analysis of the performance and outlook for the prime luxury residential market across major Australian cities and globally. It highlights how the ultrawealthy population (UHNW) continues to drive demand for high-end property despite economic uncertainties and the broader market correction.

Key Drivers of the Market

• UHNW Population Growth: Australia's UHNW population grew by 10.1% in 2021, reaching 20,874 individuals with net wealth over US$30 million, and is forecast to grow by 31% over the next five years.
• Economic Uncertainty: Global economic conditions remain uncertain, affecting wealth creation and potentially impacting the market in 2023.
• Interest Rates: The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised the official cash rate to 3.60% in March 2023, up from 0.10% in April 2022, as a response to inflation. The RBA will continue to monitor the economy and may adjust rates further in 2023.
• Business Investment: New private business investment grew by 3.1% in the year to December 2022, showing some resilience despite global economic headwinds.
• Company Profits: Australian company profits rose 17.1% in 2022, but are forecast to fall by 6% in 2023 and 0.5% in 2024, with a recovery of 5.9% in 2024.
• Stock Market: The S&P/ASX 200 rose 8.7% in the last quarter of 2022, but the annual performance was -5.5%. The market is expected to decline -1.7% in 2023, with growth of 4.8% and 3.5% in 2024 and 2025, respectively.

Prime Residential Performance and Outlook

• Sales Volume: Prime sales volume increased by 14% in the December 2022 quarter, with 1,596 homes sold. Annual sales volume was 23% lower than the previous year.
• Perth: Recorded the highest annual sales volume growth at 14%, while Brisbane saw a -5% decline.
• Days on Market: The average days on market for prime properties increased slightly in some cities, with Melbourne showing the highest increase.
• Capital Growth: Capital growth for prime properties was 1.8% over the year to December 2022, with Gold Coast leading at 4.1%.
• Price Performance:
  • Gold Coast: Ranked 14th globally for prime price growth, with an annual growth of 4.1%.
  • Melbourne: Ranked 19th, with 3.5% annual growth.
  • Perth: Ranked 27th, with 1.3% annual growth.
  • Sydney: Ranked 29th, with 1.1% annual growth.
  • Brisbane: Ranked 32nd, with 0.2% annual growth.
• Rental Growth:
  • Gold Coast led with 18.9% annual rental growth, followed by Brisbane at 11.8%, Melbourne at 8.6%, Perth at 8.3%, and Sydney at 6.7%.
• Gross Rental Yields:
  • Gold Coast recorded the highest yield at 3.88%.
  • Australian Prime Average: 2.80%.
• Forecast:
  • Prime residential prices are expected to grow 3% in 2024 and 5% in 2025.
  • Rental growth is forecast to continue with 3% in 2023, 4% in 2024, and 5% in 2025.

Major Cities Analysis

Summary of Key Points

• UHNW Population: Continues to grow, with a 31% projected increase over five years.
• Market Resilience: Prime luxury residential market remains robust, with steady demand from the UHNW despite broader market corrections.
• Interest Rates: RBA has raised rates to combat inflation, which may impact future market dynamics.
• Regional Variations:
  • Gold Coast leads in both price growth and rental growth.
  • Perth has shown strong sales volume growth.
  • Brisbane has the lowest average days on market.
• Forecast: Prime residential prices are expected to grow 3% in 2024 and 5% in 2025, with rental growth also showing positive trends.

Additional Information

• Prime Property Definition: The top 5% of each market by value, with varying price thresholds across cities.
• Contact Information:
  • Research: Michelle Ciesielski, +612 9036 6659, michelle.ciesielski@au.knightfrank.com
  • Residential: Erin van Tuil, +612 9036 6699, erin.vantuil@au.knightfrank.com
  • Media Enquiries: Vanessa De Groot, +614 1046 0211, pr@au.knightfrank.com

Recent Publications

• Rightsizing 2022
• Australian Waterfront Premium 2022
• Branded Residences 2022
• Prime Global Cities Index Q4 2022
• Prime Global Rental Index Q4 2022
• The Wealth Report 2023

Knight Frank Research provides strategic insights and forecasts for developers, investors, and other stakeholders. This report is for general information only and should not be relied upon for decision-making.