2023-07-22-莱坊-Australian_Prime_Residential_Review_Q2_2023_5页_1mb

Australian Prime Residential Review - Q2 2023 Summary

Core Content

Knight Frank's Q2 2023 report provides an in-depth analysis of the prime residential sales and rental markets in major Australian cities. It highlights the resilience of the prime property market despite challenges such as rising mortgage rates and limited property listings.

Main Points

Prime Residential Market Performance

• Sales Volume: Prime residential sales volume has remained low due to limited buying opportunities, not a lack of demand.
• Price Trends: Record sale prices are being achieved in prime suburbs, especially those with waterfront views, large estates, and upper-level apartments.
• Sales Decline: The number of luxury home sales has declined, with only a quarter of the sales volume from the year to March 2022 being repeated in the past year.
• Market Sentiment: Vendors are hesitant to list properties due to market uncertainty following mortgage rate hikes. Buyers are also cautious, leading to longer selling times (4 extra days on average).
• Rental Pressure: Demand for owner-occupier properties is putting pressure on the rental market, with less prestige homes being purchased for rental purposes.
• Vacancy Rates: Total residential vacancy rates remain historically low, contributing to rental market strength.

Wealth Trends

• HNWI Growth: Australia's high-net-worth individual (HNWI) population grew by 4.8% in 2022, reaching 2,214,326 individuals with net wealth over US$1 million.
• UHNWI Growth: The ultra-high-net-worth (UHNW) population grew by 2.1%, reaching 17,456 individuals with net wealth over US$30 million.
• Future Projections:
  • HNWI population is projected to grow by 71.1% by the end of 2027.
  • UHNWI population is expected to grow by 40.9% over the next five years.
  • The share of UHNW population outside the four major cities is expected to rise from 32.7% to 37.2%.

Economic Outlook

• NSW Growth: New South Wales recorded 1.8% economic growth in 2022, with Sydney's unemployment rate at 3.7%.
• Stock Market: The S&P/ASX 200 fell by 4.5% in 2023, but is forecast to rise by 2.4% in 2023, 4.2% in 2024, and 3.0% in 2025.
• Business Conditions: The NAB business conditions index increased by 14 points in March 2023, slightly higher than the 13.9 points recorded a year ago.
• Company Profits: Company profits grew by 19.2% in 2022, but are forecast to decline by 3% in 2023 and 3.8% in 2024, before recovering by 2.4% in 2025.
• Business Investment: New private business investment grew by 6.6% in the year to March 2023.

Lending Environment

• Cash Rate: The Reserve Bank of Australia raised the official cash rate by 50 bps to 4.10% by June 2023.
• Mortgage Rates: Average mortgage lending rates for owner-occupiers increased by 3 bps to 6.27% for a 3-year fixed term and 50 bps to 8.02% for a standard variable loan.
• Investor Rates: For investors, 3-year fixed term rates decreased by 1 bps to 6.32%, while standard variable rates rose by 50 bps to 8.60%.

Prime Residential Price Performance

• Sales Volume: Prime residential sales volume in March 2023 declined by 27.3% compared to a year ago.
• Days on Market: The average number of days a prime home was on the market increased to 68 days, up from 64 days one quarter earlier.
• Price Growth: Prime residential prices rose by 1.1% in the year to March 2023 and 1.0% in the last quarter.
• Regional Performance:
  • Perth: Highest annual growth in sale transactions (10%).
  • Brisbane: Lowest number of days on market (57 days).
  • Melbourne: Strongest annual price growth (2.9%).

Prime Residential Rental Market

• Rental Growth: Prime residential rents increased by 4.2% in the March 2023 quarter and 12.7% annually.
• Gross Rental Yield: The average gross rental yield for prime residential properties was 2.89%, up from 9 bps in the first quarter of 2023.
• Vacancy Rates: Rental vacancy rates remain at a historically low 1.4%.
• Regional Performance:
  • Gold Coast: Highest gross rental yield (4.00%) and strongest annual rental growth (19.9%).
• Rental Forecast:
  • Sydney Prime: Forecasted to grow by 18% in 2023 and average 12% from 2023–2025.
  • Melbourne Prime: Forecasted to grow by 19% in 2023 and average 12% from 2023–2025.
  • Australia: Forecasted to grow by 18% in 2023 and average 12% from 2023–2025.

Key Drivers

• Wealth Trends: Growth in HNWI and UHNWI populations is a significant driver of demand for prime residential properties.
• Economic Fundamentals: Strong employment and economic growth in major cities, along with rising company profits, support the prime market.
• Lending Conditions: Rising mortgage rates have impacted buyer behavior, leading to more cautious purchasing and longer selling times.
• Supply Constraints: Limited property listings and construction challenges are creating a price floor and increasing demand.

Data Digest

• Prime Property Definition: The top 5% of each market by value.
• Sales Threshold: $3 million in Sydney and Melbourne, and $2 million in Brisbane, Perth, and the Gold Coast.
• Currency: All figures in Australian Dollars (AUD), unless stated otherwise.

Contact Information

• Michelle Ciesielski - Residential Research
  Email: michelle.ciesielski@au.knightfrank.com
  Phone: +61290366659

• Justin Bond - Residential Site Sales
  Email: justin.bond@au.knightfrank.com
  Phone: +61732468872

• Sally Edvardsen - Franchise Partnerships
  Email: sally.edvardsen@au.knightfrank.com
  Phone: +61290366845

• Erin van Tuil - Residential
  Email: erin.vantuil@au.knightfrank.com
  Phone: +61290366699

• Luke Hayes - Residential Project Sales
  Email: luke.hayes@au.knightfrank.com
  Phone: +61290366700

• Alistair Carpenter - Valuations
  Email: al.carpenter@au.knightfrank.com
  Phone: +6129036662