2021-06-18-隆众资讯-顺酐产业周报_7页_1008kb

Report Summary

Overview

This summary analyzes the Shengfan (Concentrated Unsaturated Polyester Resin) industry week report dated June 11-17, 2021. The report highlights key trends in crude oil, production processes, and market dynamics, emphasizing price movements, supply-demand balance, and future outlook. The analysis is based on data from sources like隆众资讯 and covers aspects such as raw material costs,开工率 (utilization rates), and regional market conditions. Overall, the market remains influenced by原油 (crude oil) strength but faces challenges from weak downstream demand and cost pressures.

Key Trends and Data

• Crude Oil: Crude oil prices showed persistent strength, with WTI closing at 72.15 USD/bbl (+3.13% week-on-week) and Brent at 74.39 USD/bbl (+3.00%). This support stems from positive summer demand expectations in Europe and the US, but domestic化工品 (chemical products) responded weakly.
• Production Processes:
  • Isobutane (丁烷) process开工率 (utilization rate) held steady at 84.39%, with no significant changes.
  • Benzene process continued to operate near成本线 (cost line), with局部 (local) profit pressures; for example,河北 price dipped by 0.67% to 9500元/吨, maintaining support from downstream补仓需求 (restocking demand).
  • UPR开工率 (utilization rate) remained at 39%, stable week-on-week, indicating low industry activity.
• Demand and Prices: Downstream需求 (demand) for resin-based products was weak, with树脂开工率 (resin utilization rate) at 39% and终端表现 inhibit增长 (terminal performance limiting growth). Prices for Shengfan varied regionally, with山东固体down 2.11% week-on-week to 9300元/吨,Sc华南跌幅 3.06%, reflecting买气偏淡 (soft buying) issues.

Market Analysis and Profitability

• Profit Margins: 苯法工艺 profit margins fell sharply, from 256元/吨 to 100元/吨, while丁烷法 profit increased modestly. Cost drivers include原油联动性弱 (weak oil linkage) and下游弱需求 (downstream weakness), pressuring 苯法 operations.
• Supply and Demand: Supply remained relatively stable due to steady开工率, but高库存 in downstream sectors like树脂 delayed new purchases.外贸新单 (export orders) showed price分化 (differentiation), with major firms maintaining high prices but others offering discounts.
• Regional Variations: Markets reacted differently based on location; for example,山东 prices declined, while云南 and华南 stabilized, highlighting local供需 imbalances.

Future Outlook

The short-term forecast suggests a range-bound movement for Shengfan, with key factors being:

• Support from供应和成本 (supply and cost) fundamentals, including苯法 near盈亏平衡点 (break-even point).
• Risks from weakened终端需求 (end-market demand), which could increase inventory and limit price支撑 (support).
• External factors like船运紧张 (shipping congestion) and运费增长 (rising freight rates) affect外贸, potentially slowing出口.
  Overall, prices are in阶段性低位 (phase-based lows), with小幅下滑风险 hard to rule out if market inventories rise.

Conclusion

The week saw Shengfan market pressured by mixed industry dynamics and weak demand, despite原油 support. Ongoing monitoring of下游新订单 (downstream new orders) and regional price trends is crucial for short-term decision-making. The report indicates a cautious outlook with potential volatility.