20250213-华泰期货-美国通胀系列十一_CPI超预期_预计推迟降息_7页_569kb

macroanalysis data: US Labor Department released Jan CPI data. Year-on-year: CPI+30%, market exp+29%, prior+29%; core CPI+33%, exp+31%, prior+32%. Month-on-month: CPI+0.5%, exp+0.3%, prior+0.4%; core CPI+0.4%, exp+0.3%, prior+0.2%.
The key points are as follows:

1. Core CPI exceeded expectations by 2 points YoY, showing that the market outlook for rate cuts is becoming stricter. Fed funds futures rate dropped sharply, and the market now expects only one haircut in 2025, with the first possible rate cut delayed to Sept.
2. Despite the solid recovery in the labor market, underlying price pressures are widespread. Core inflation has expanded into more areas. Services and goods type inflation structure appeared and also showed the problem.
3. Bond market reaction:10y US Treasury yield jumped 8bp by 462bp; USD index rose by 0.08% to 10801; gold lost >1% in the spot market.
4. Risk-related factors:Oil prices are holding up for the moment, but much depends on global oil market supply and geopolitical risks. The market outlook for recession is improving.