微电网储能：电池部署现状与预测（英）-60页_2mb

报告摘要

The Energy Storage Partnership (ESP), led by the World Bank through ESMAP, promotes sustainable energy storage solutions in developing countries to improve energy access.
Mini grids are essential for decentralized off-grid electricity in remote areas, powering communities from primary health centers to commercial enterprises.
740 million people lack access to electricity, primarily in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia; universal access by 2030 requires expanding mini grid deployment to serve over 1.3 billion people.

As of 2021, around 21,500 mini grids globally served 48 million people, with the majority in South Asia.
Battery storage is growing: lead-acid predominant (94% globally), lithium-ion increasing rapidly.
In 2021, 44% of new mini grids used lithium-ion technology; by 2030, its share is projected to reach 70%.
Hybrid solar and battery systems are prevalent, reducing diesel dependency and enabling productive uses.

Lead-acid batteries: Mature, low upfront cost ($80–$150/kWh), shorter lifespan, suitable for short-duration storage.
Lithium-ion batteries: Longer cycle life (2,000+ cycles), higher energy density, lower LCOS ($0.32/kWh by 2030), displacing lead-acid in many markets.
Other options include vanadium redox flow batteries (long life, temperature resilience), iron-air and hydrogen storage (emerging for long-term storage).

LCOS is a critical factor: lead-acid has a higher long-term LCOS due to lower efficiency and shallower discharge.
Lithium-ion's unit cost is declining, but total system cost includes infrastructure, maintenance, and charging losses.

By 2030, global demand for mini grid batteries could rise to ~3,600 MWh annually, up from ~180 MWh in 2020.
Scenario-based projections differ by development level: high case vs. low case scenarios.
Asia and Africa are key growth regions; lithium-ion penetration continues to grow, but alternatives like flow batteries and iron-air may gain traction.

Lead-acid deployments: Husk Power Systems (India/Nigeria) uses hybrid solar-biomass grids with lead-acid batteries for extended operation.
Lithium-ion deployments: Case studies in Uganda, Myanmar, and India demonstrate the viability and increasing deployment of technologies like LFP and NMC.
Alternative chemistries: Vanadium flow batteries (Uganda case) and flywheels (Philippines) for stabilizing grids and enhancing resilience.

Conduct field studies on battery performance under operational conditions.
Consider total cost (LCOS) rather than just upfront costs in technology selection.
Develop and adopt performance and safety standards for mini grid batteries.
Ensure regulatory and procurement frameworks support innovation and efficiency.
Promote recycling practices for end-of-life batteries, especially lithium-ion.
Encourage the reuse of second-life batteries in stationary storage.
Exempt mini grid batteries from import duties to reduce costs.
Implement technical training programs to improve maintenance and deployment.
Create standard operating procedures for monitoring battery health.

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