【世界银行】微型电网储能：电池部署的现状和预测-2023._2mb

Summary: Energy Storage for Mini Grids

Core Content

This report, prepared by the Energy Sector Management Assistance Program (ESMAP) and the Energy Storage Partnership (ESP), focuses on the role of battery energy storage in decentralized mini grids, particularly in remote and rural areas. It outlines the current status and future projections of battery deployment, compares different battery technologies, and provides case studies and recommendations for enhancing the implementation of mini grids with energy storage systems.

Main Points

1. Status of Mini Grids and Battery Deployment

• Mini grids are critical for providing electricity in remote areas, serving communities and businesses.
• As of 2020, approximately 740 million people still lack access to electricity, with 577 million in Sub-Saharan Africa.
• By 2030, it is projected that about 800 million people will gain access to electricity, requiring a significant expansion of mini grids.
• In 2021, around 1,100 rural mini grid projects were installed globally, providing 80 MW of capacity.
• Mini grids are increasingly powered by solar energy with battery backup, especially in South Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Southeast Asia.

2. Battery Technology Overview

• Battery technologies used in mini grids include lead acid, lithium-ion, lithium iron phosphate (LFP), vanadium redox flow batteries (VRFBs), and sodium-ion batteries.
• The selection of battery technology involves multiple factors such as cycle life, depth of discharge, energy density, C-rating, thermal runaway, maintenance, and environmental impact.
• Lithium-ion batteries are becoming more popular due to their longer lifespan, higher efficiency, and lower levelized cost of storage (LCOS) compared to lead acid batteries.

3. Demand Projections

• Under the high-case scenario, global demand for mini grid batteries is expected to increase from 180 MWh in 2020 to over 3,600 MWh by 2030.
• In the base-case scenario, demand is projected to exceed 2,200 MWh by 2030.
• In the low-case scenario, demand is around 1,500 MWh.
• Lithium-ion battery penetration is expected to rise from 55% in 2021 to 70% by 2030 in Sub-Saharan Africa.

4. Cost Analysis

• The levelized cost of storage (LCOS) is a key metric for evaluating battery technologies.
• Lead acid batteries have a lower upfront cost per kWh but higher LCOS due to shorter cycle life and lower efficiency.
• Lithium-ion batteries have a higher CAPEX but significantly lower LCOS due to better performance and longer lifespan.
• VRFBs show potential for cost reduction with increased storage duration and innovative business models like vanadium leasing.

5. Emerging Technologies

• Second-life lithium-ion batteries are a promising stationary storage solution.
• Sodium-ion batteries offer advantages in terms of raw material availability, cycle life, and safety.
• Iron-air batteries could provide low-cost long-term storage, despite lower energy density.
• Hydrogen-powered storage is being explored as an alternative to diesel generators for long-term energy storage.
• Flywheel energy storage systems (FESS) offer rapid output, long lifetime, and no hazardous chemicals, making them suitable for mini grid stabilization.

Key Information

• Challenges faced by mini grid developers include remote locations, maintenance difficulties, taxation issues, lack of standardization, and the risk of stranded assets.
• Case Studies highlight successful implementations of various battery technologies:
  • Husk Power Systems (India and Nigeria): Uses lead acid batteries with machine learning for optimization.
  • Lolwe Islands, Uganda: Implements LFP batteries in a solar hybrid mini grid with business incubation programs.
  • San Seth, Myanmar: Utilizes NMC lithium-ion batteries with a long cycle life.
  • Dancitagi, Nigeria: Employs LFP batteries and a diesel genset to meet rising demand.
  • Makhala, India: Relies on containerized LFP batteries without diesel generators.
  • Maldives: Uses VRFBs to store solar energy and supply power during peak hours.
  • Philippines: Implements FESS to stabilize the grid and reduce reliance on diesel.

Recommendations

To enhance the implementation and success of decentralized renewable energy mini grids, the report recommends:

• Study battery performance in the field to better understand real-world efficiency and degradation.
• Consider total cost, including the levelized cost of storage (LCOS) and levelized cost of electricity (LCOE), not just initial costs.
• Adopt safety and performance standards aligned with international guidelines.
• Carefully draft regulatory documents and procurement specifications to ensure quality and performance without unnecessary restrictions.
• Promote recycling and repurposing of batteries to address environmental concerns and reduce costs.
• Encourage the use of second-life batteries, sodium-ion, and other emerging technologies.
• Exempt mini grid batteries from import duties to lower costs and increase adoption.
• Provide technical skills training to support maintenance and operation.
• Develop standard operating procedures for understanding battery technology performance.

Conclusion

Battery storage is a pivotal component in the development and expansion of mini grids, especially in remote and underserved regions. As the demand for electricity access grows, the role of energy storage technologies becomes increasingly important. The report emphasizes the need for a balanced approach that considers both upfront and lifetime costs, as well as the importance of innovation and sustainability in the deployment of these systems.