2010年-世界发展银行全球_Outlook_for_Remittance_Flows_2011-12___Recovery_After_the_Crisis_But_Risks_Lie_Ahead_14页_1mb

Migration and Development Brief Summary

Core Content

This document provides an outlook for remittance flows to developing countries from 2011 to 2012, analyzing the recovery from the global financial crisis and identifying key trends and risks affecting these flows. It also discusses structural and regulatory changes in the remittance market, the role of diaspora in development finance, and the potential of innovative mechanisms such as diaspora bonds.

Main Points

1. Remittance Flow Outlook

• Remittance flows to developing countries increased by 6% in 2010, recovering from a 5.5% decline in 2009.
• The World Bank estimates remittance flows to reach $374 billion by 2012, with a 6.2% growth in 2011 and 8.1% in 2012.
• Poland is no longer classified as a developing country in the World Bank's definition due to its economic status.

2. Resilience of Remittances

• Remittances were more resilient than other forms of external financing during the global financial crisis.
• Key reasons for resilience include:
  • Cumulative nature of remittances over time.
  • Migrants staying abroad due to economic uncertainty.
  • Migrants cutting costs to maintain remittance payments.
  • Returning migrants bringing back savings.
  • Fiscal stimulus in host countries.
  • Diversified migration destinations.

3. Regional Trends

• Latin America and the Caribbean: Remittances declined by 12% in 2009, but started recovering in 2010 with a 2% growth. Expected to grow by 7.6% in 2011 and 10% in 2012, reaching $69 billion in 2012.
• South Asia: Remittance flows grew by 10.3% in 2010, with India as the largest recipient. Expected to grow at 5.1% in 2011 and 6.3% in 2012.
• East Asia and the Pacific: Remittances grew by 6.4% in 2010, reaching $91 billion. Expected to grow by 7.2% in 2011 and 8.5% in 2012, reaching $106 billion.
• Europe and Central Asia: Remittances declined by 23% in 2009, but recovered to $37 billion in 2010. Expected to grow by 6.5% in 2011 and 10.4% in 2012, reaching $43 billion.
• Middle East and North Africa: Remittances grew by 5.3% in 2010, reaching $35 billion. Expected to grow by 4.5% in 2011 and 6.7% in 2012, reaching $40 billion.
• Sub-Saharan Africa: Remittance flows remained nearly flat during the crisis, with a 4% increase in 2010 to $21.5 billion. Expected to grow by 4.5% in 2011 and 6.7% in 2012, reaching $24 billion. However, data reliability remains a challenge in the region.

4. Key Risks

• Economic recovery: Uncertain and fragile recovery in major destination countries could lead to reduced migrant employment and income, thus affecting remittances.
• Currency and commodity volatility: Fluctuations in exchange rates and oil prices can have unpredictable effects on remittance flows.
• Immigration restrictions: Rising anti-immigration sentiment and restrictive policies in destination countries could hinder migration and remittance flows.

5. Structural and Regulatory Trends

• The global remittance market is undergoing structural changes with the rise of mobile and internet-based remittance services.
• Remittance costs have generally decreased since the third quarter of 2008, but remain high in Sub-Saharan Africa and South-South corridors.
• US Wall Street Reform and EU Payment Services Directive (PSD) aim to increase transparency and competition in remittance markets.
• Mobile money transfer services are slow to cross borders due to regulatory uncertainties and AML-CFT compliance challenges.

6. Innovative Financing Mechanisms

• Remittances have become a key source of external financing for developing countries.
• Diaspora bonds are emerging as a new tool to tap into diaspora wealth:
  • Greece announced plans to issue a diaspora bond.
  • India and Israel have previously raised over $35 billion through such bonds.
  • Sub-Saharan African countries could potentially raise $5-10 billion annually through diaspora bonds.
  • Potential issuers include: Bangladesh, Colombia, El Salvador, Ghana, India, Jamaica, Kenya, Mexico, Morocco, Nepal, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, Romania, Senegal, South Africa, Sri Lanka, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe.

Key Information

• Top remittance recipients (in US$ terms) in 2010: India, China, Mexico, and the Philippines.
• Top remittance recipients as a share of GDP: Tajikistan, Tonga, Lesotho, Moldova, and Samoa.
• Remittances exceeded a fifth of GDP in some small economies, providing a lifeline to the poor.
• Diaspora bonds offer a new financing avenue, with retail accessibility and community engagement as key advantages.
• Regulatory changes are expected to enhance transparency and competition, but uncertainty remains regarding the reporting thresholds and regulatory frameworks for cross-border remittances.
• Mobile money has limited cross-border reach due to regulatory barriers and operational risks.

Conclusion

Remittance flows are showing signs of recovery after the global financial crisis, but risks remain due to economic uncertainty, currency fluctuations, and rising anti-immigration policies. The structural shift toward digital remittance services is slow to materialize, and regulatory clarity is essential for the growth and stability of the remittance market. The potential of diaspora bonds is gaining attention, as they offer a new way to leverage diaspora wealth for development finance.