2023-07-18-莱坊-Darwin_Residential_Insight_Q2_2023_4页_720kb

Darwin Residential Market Summary Q2 2023

Core Content

Knight Frank's Q2 2023 report provides an in-depth analysis of the residential market in Greater Darwin, covering sales, price performance, rental market trends, population growth, economic indicators, and the lending environment.

Key Market Trends

Sales & Price Performance

• Residential Sales Volume:
  • Trended down by 14% in the March 2023 quarter to 466 homes, although annual sales volume was 2% higher than a year ago.
  • Houses: Sales volume trended down by 5.4% to 247 houses, with annual sales volume 1.3% lower than a year ago.
  • Apartments: Sales volume trended down by 21.5% to 219 apartments, but annual sales volume was 6.3% higher than a year ago.
• Days on Market:
  • Residential homes: 145 days in March 2023, up from 118 days one quarter earlier.
  • Houses: 130 days in March 2023, up from 112 days one quarter earlier.
  • Apartments: 172 days in March 2023, up from 129 days one quarter earlier.
• Median Values:
  • Residential homes: $528,000 in March 2023, down 2.2% year-on-year.
  • Houses: $623,500 in March 2023, down 1.9% year-on-year.
  • Apartments: $357,000 in March 2023, down 3.5% year-on-year.

Rental Market

• Vacancy Rate:
  • Residential rental vacancy was 2.1% in March 2023, up from 2.7% in the previous quarter and 1.6% a year ago.
• Rental Growth:
  • Weekly median rent for residential properties increased by 3.4% in the quarter and 8.0% over the past year to $605.
  • Weekly median rent for houses increased by 4.0% in the quarter and 8.3% over the past year to $650.
  • Weekly median rent for apartments remained unchanged in the quarter but increased 6.1% over the past year to $520.
• Gross Rental Yields:
  • Residential rental yields increased by 8 bps to 6.28% in Q1 2023.
  • Houses: Gross rental yields rose by 10 bps to 5.84%.
  • Apartments: Gross rental yields increased by 4 bps to 7.06%.

Future Pipeline

• Building Approvals:
  • In the March 2023 quarter, 87 houses and 4 apartments were approved.
  • House approvals trended 19.4% lower compared to the previous quarter.
  • Apartment approvals trended 33.3% higher compared to the previous quarter.

Population Growth

• The Greater Darwin population was estimated at 149,500 in 2022, with an annual growth rate of 1.8%.
• Projected population growth to 2041 is 1.8% per annum, according to ABS data.

Economic Outlook

• Northern Territory (NT) Economic Growth:
  • 2022: 6.0%
  • 2023 Forecast: 2.5%
  • 2023-2025 Average Forecast: 1.2%
• Unemployment Rate:
  • March 2023: 3.4%, trending 35 bps lower than the previous quarter.
  • Forecast: Expected to remain around 4.1% for 2023-2025.
• Official Cash Rate:
  • June 2023: Raised by 50 bps to 4.10%.
  • Forecast: Expected to decrease to an average of 3.94% by the end of 2024.

Lending Environment

• New Household Loan Commitments:
  • Increased by 1.7% in the March 2023 quarter compared to the previous quarter.
  • First Home Buyers:
    • Lending commitments rose by 29.1% in March 2023, lower than 30.4% a year earlier.
    • Represented 23.7% of all owner occupier loans in the NT in March 2023.
• Mortgage Rates:
  • Owner Occupiers:
    • 3-year fixed term: Increased by 3 bps to 6.27%.
    • Standard variable loan: Increased by 50 bps to 8.02%.
  • Investors:
    • 3-year fixed term: Decreased by 1 bps to 6.32%.
    • Standard variable loan: Increased by 50 bps to 8.60%.

Market Forecast

Source: Oxford Economics for economic data, Knight Frank Research for market forecast.

Contact Information

• Residential Research: Michelle Ciesielski | +61290366659 | michelle.ciesielski@au.knightfrank.com
• Residential Site Sales: Matthew Knight | +61889822502 | matthew.knight@au.knightfrank.com
• Franchise Partnerships: Sally Edvardsen | +61290366845 | sally.edvardsen@au.knightfrank.com
• Residential: Erin van Tuil | +61290366699 | erin.vantuil@au.knightfrank.com
• Residential Project Sales: Luke Hayes | +61290366700 | luke.hayes@au.knightfrank.com
• Valuations: Alistair Carpenter | +6129036662 | al.carpenter@au.knightfrank.com