2024-01-24-莱坊-Brisbane_Residential_Insight_Q4_2023_4页_867kb

Brisbane Residential Market Summary (Q4 2023)

Core Content Overview

This report provides an analysis of the residential market in Greater Brisbane, focusing on sales and rental performance, price trends, and new build activity for Q4 2023. It also includes forecasts for the next few years based on economic and interest rate trends.

Mainstream Sales Performance

• Sales Volume:

  • Q3 2023 (September 2023 quarter): 51,729 residential homes (houses and apartments) sold, representing a 15.1% decrease compared to the previous quarter.
  • Annual Sales Volume: 22.7% decline compared to the same quarter in 2022.

• Days on Market:

  • September 2023: 47 days.
  • Three months earlier (June 2023): 53 days.
  • One year earlier (September 2022): 44 days.

• Auction Clearance Rate:

  • September 2023: 61.3% from 236 scheduled auctions.
  • Prior Quarter (June 2023): 60.2% from 134 auctions.
  • Same Quarter Last Year: 49.6% from 130 auctions.

Price Performance

• Residential Property Prices:

  • Year-on-Year (YoY): Increased by 4.1% to a median value of $756,500.
  • Quarter-on-Quarter (QoQ): Rose by 1.5%.

• Forecasted Price Growth:

  • End of 2023: 5%.
  • 2024: 5%.
  • 2025: 4%.

Rental Market Performance

• Vacancy Rate:

  • September 2023: 1.0%.
  • Annual Increase: 30 bps (0.3%) compared to the previous year.
  • Balanced Market: Typically considered 3% vacancy.

• Gross Rental Yields:

  • Year-on-Year: Increased by 36 bps to 4.63%.

• Rental Growth:

  • Quarter-on-Quarter (QoQ): 2.7% increase.
  • Annual Increase: 10.5% to $580 per week.

• Forecasted Rental Growth:

  • End of 2023: 12%.
  • 2024: 9%.
  • 2025: 7%.

New Builds

• Annual Building Approvals (September 2023):

  • Total: 19,334 additional dwellings.
  • Annual Growth: 2.5% increase compared to the previous year.
  • House Approvals: 6.0% lower than a year ago.
  • Apartment Approvals: 18.6% higher than a year ago.

• Breakdown of Approvals:

  • Houses: 11,643 approved.
  • Apartments: 7,691 approved.

Economic and Interest Rate Drivers

• Queensland Economic Growth:

  • 2022: 3.3%.
  • Forecast for 2025: 3.2%.

• Unemployment Rate:

  • September 2023: 4.1%.

• Official Cash Rate Target:

  • December 2023: 4.35%.
  • Forecast for 2025: 3.9%.

Population and Housing Demand

• Greater Brisbane Population:

  • 2022: Increased by 2.2% to an estimated 2.6 million people.
  • Forecast for 2025: 1.7% annual growth.

• Market Demand:

  • Rising demand has led to price growth and shorter sales periods, particularly in the established house market.

Established House Market

• Sales Volume:

  • September 2023 Quarter: Fell by 16.1% to 35,555 houses.
  • Annual Sales Volume: 22.0% lower than a year ago.

• Median House Value:

  • September 2023: $849,000.
  • Year-on-Year (YoY): Increased by 3.3%.

• Rental Growth:

  • Quarter-on-Quarter (QoQ): 1.7% increase.
  • Annual Increase: 7.3% to $590 per week.

• Gross Rental Yields:

  • September 2023: 4.24%.
  • Year-on-Year Increase: 34 bps.

Established Apartment Market

• Sales Volume:

  • September 2023 Quarter: Decreased by 13%.
  • Annual Sales Volume: 24.2% lower than a year ago.

• Median Apartment Value:

  • September 2023: $495,000.
  • Year-on-Year (YoY): Increased by 7.7%.

• Rental Growth:

  • Quarter-on-Quarter (QoQ): 3.8% increase.
  • Annual Increase: 19.6% to $550 per week.

• Gross Rental Yields:

  • Year-on-Year Increase: 43 bps to 5.73%.

Residential Market Forecast (2023f–2025f)

Source: Knight Frank Research

Key Drivers of the Market

• Economic Growth: Queensland's economic growth is expected to stabilize around 3.2% in 2025.
• Unemployment Rate: Projected to rise to 4.3% in 2024 and remain at 4.1% on average for 2023–2025.
• Interest Rates: The cash rate is forecasted to decrease to 3.9% in 2025, following an increase to 4.35% in December 2023.

Conclusion

The Brisbane residential market continues to show resilience, with both price and rental growth remaining positive despite a decline in sales volume. Apartment markets are experiencing increased demand and higher rental yields, while house markets are seeing limited supply and rising prices. New build approvals have improved, particularly for apartments, suggesting a potential future supply increase. Economic and interest rate trends will play a crucial role in shaping the market over the next few years.