2011年-世界发展银行全球_Petroleum_Product_Markets_in_Sub-Saharan_Africa___Comparative_Efficiency_Analysis_of_12_Countries_207页_4mb

Summary of Petroleum Product Markets in Sub-Saharan Africa

Core Content

This report provides a comparative efficiency analysis of the petroleum product markets in 12 Sub-Saharan African countries, focusing on the cost of supply, infrastructure, market structure, and pricing policies. It aims to identify inefficiencies in the supply chain and evaluate the potential for cost reduction.

Main Findings

1. Petroleum Product Consumption and Supply Chain

Petroleum products are essential for economic activity, with gasoline and diesel being the primary fuels for road transport. Oil is also used in power generation, accounting for 11% of total electricity in Africa in 2007. Households rely on petroleum products for lighting, cooking, and heating, particularly in low-income countries where access to electricity is limited.

The study examines 12 countries: Burkina Faso, Côte d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal in West Africa, and Botswana, Kenya, Madagascar, Malawi, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda in East and Southern Africa. These countries vary in market size, geography, and economic development.

2. Factors Affecting Supply Costs

• World Oil Prices: Increased fourfold between 2004 and 2008, then dropped sharply, leading to price adjustments in some countries.
• Transportation Modes:
  • Pipeline: Most cost-effective, but limited in availability. Only Kenya and South Africa have pipelines, with Kenya's frequently disrupted due to power shortages.
  • Rail: Underutilized in most countries, except for Senegal and Mali, where investment is needed to improve infrastructure.
  • Road: Dominant in many countries, but suffers from poor conditions, congestion, and slow border clearance, increasing costs.
• Economies of Scale: Countries with smaller markets tend to adopt a single-buyer model to reduce costs.
• Legal and Regulatory Frameworks: Inconsistent and outdated in many countries, particularly those with French colonial histories. Weak enforcement exacerbates inefficiencies.

3. Pricing Policies

• Price Control: Eight countries, including all five West African countries, implement price control mechanisms based on import-parity structures.
• Adjustment Frequency: Most countries adjust prices monthly, except Malawi, which uses a price stabilization fund without a set schedule.
• Pricing Mechanisms:
  • Pan-territorial pricing: Côte d'Ivoire, Madagascar, Mali, Niger, and Senegal.
  • Location-based pricing: Burkina Faso.
  • Tax Differentiation: Mali achieves uniform prices by taxing products differently based on sourcing.
• Refinery Protection:
  • Côte d'Ivoire: Adds a 5% premium to import parity cost.
  • Kenya: Requires marketers to process about 50% of local consumption at the refinery.
  • Senegal: Imposes a fee of $0.07 per liter on gasoline, kerosene, and diesel.
  • South Africa: Indirect protection through import restrictions.

4. Market Structure and Efficiency

• Market Concentration: Measured by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), 8 out of 12 countries have concentrated markets (HHI > 1,800).
• Least Concentrated Market: Mali, despite being small, has the lowest HHI.
• Most Concentrated Market: Niger, followed by Malawi and Madagascar.
• Competition: Weak in most countries, with limited number of operators and lack of transparency in pricing and supply.

5. Cost Reduction Potential

• Transportation Improvements: Developing rail infrastructure and increasing pipeline capacity could significantly reduce costs.
• Efficient Pricing Policies: Transparent and regular disclosure of industry statistics, along with clear legal frameworks, can enhance efficiency.
• Refinery Development: Investment in refining capacity can reduce reliance on imports and lower costs in the long term.

Key Information

• Import-Parity Structure: Used by most countries to adjust prices based on world market prices, marine freight, and exchange rates.
• Legal Frameworks: Need strengthening in Burkina Faso, Côte d'Ivoire, Mali, and Niger.
• Public Information: Governments should collect and disseminate market data to improve transparency and efficiency.
• Fuel Shortages: Have led to price volatility and economic impacts in some regions.

Recommendations

• Improve Infrastructure: Focus on pipeline and rail development to reduce transportation costs.
• Strengthen Legal and Regulatory Systems: Update frameworks and ensure effective monitoring and enforcement.
• Enhance Transparency: Regularly disclose pricing and supply data to inform market participants.
• Promote Competition: Implement strict licensing criteria and ensure compliance with regulations.
• Support Refineries: Provide necessary protection and investment to improve domestic refining capabilities.

Conclusion

The efficiency of petroleum product markets in Sub-Saharan Africa is influenced by a range of factors, including transportation infrastructure, pricing policies, legal frameworks, and market concentration. While some countries have more developed systems, many face significant challenges that hinder cost-effective supply. Addressing these issues through infrastructure development, regulatory reform, and improved transparency can lead to more efficient and competitive markets.