2021年第3季度天然气市场报告，包括2021年天然气分析和2024年预测-109页_6mb

Gas Market Report Q3-2021 Summary

Core Content

This report provides a medium-term analysis and forecast of global natural gas markets up to 2024, highlighting key trends in demand, supply, and policy developments. It also reviews recent regional market dynamics and outlines the path to achieving net-zero emissions through cleaner gas solutions.

Main Findings

• Global Gas Demand Recovery:
  Natural gas demand dropped by 1.9% in 2020 due to mild weather and the pandemic. It is forecast to rebound by 3.6% in 2021 and continue growing at a slower pace to reach nearly 4,300 bcm by 2024, representing a 7% increase from pre-Covid levels.

• Demand Growth Drivers:
  The recovery is primarily driven by economic activity, with the industrial sector contributing the largest share (about 40% of the total increase from 2020 to 2024). Fuel substitution from coal and oil, especially in power generation, also plays a key role, accounting for the remaining third of the growth.

• Regional Contributions:

  • The Asia Pacific region is the largest contributor to gas demand growth, accounting for nearly half of the global increase.
  • China is the single largest driver of gas demand growth, responsible for almost 30% of the total increase.
  • India and other emerging Asian markets also play a significant role, supported by industrial expansion and fuel switching.
  • North America and Europe show more modest growth, with North America growing at 1% annually and Europe at 0.4%.
  • The Middle East contributes close to 20% of the total increase, with power generation and water desalination as the main drivers.
  • Africa and Central and South America are expected to see moderate growth, with Africa at 3.1% and Central and South America at 2.5% annually.

• Net-Zero Emissions Path:
  The current forecast for 2024 is above the levels required for a net-zero trajectory by 2070. To align with the IEA's Net Zero by 2050 roadmap, stronger policies are needed to accelerate fuel substitution and efficiency gains, especially in mature markets where most of the coal-to-gas switching potential has already been realized.

• Supply Outlook:
  Global gas production in 2024 is expected to be 6% higher than pre-Covid levels. This growth is mainly due to large conventional assets in Russia and the Middle East, as well as US shale gas and LNG expansion. However, without policy intervention, market volatility and supply security concerns may arise.

• LNG Market Trends:
  LNG trade is expected to grow by 17% compared to 2019 levels, driven by continued demand in Asia and the absence of strong policy initiatives in major markets. The growth rate is slower than the double-digit increases seen between 2016 and 2019.

• Flexibility and Infrastructure:
  Flexibility in the LNG market is increasing due to the expansion of long-term contracts without destination clauses, a growing LNG carrier fleet, and increased underground storage capacity. These developments help reinforce supply security in an increasingly interdependent global gas market.

• Policy and Efficiency Impact:
  The report emphasizes the need for stronger policies to reduce emissions and promote cleaner gas sources. Energy efficiency improvements and fuel substitution are expected to reduce gas demand by 80 bcm over the forecast period, moderating the gross increase of 430 bcm to a net increase of 350 bcm.

• Key Assumptions:

  • A strong economic rebound in 2021, with GDP growth of 6%, is assumed.
  • Global GDP growth is expected to slow to 4.6% in 2022 and around 3% in subsequent years.
  • The report uses average futures prices from April 2021 and aligns them with medium-term fuel price assumptions from the World Energy Outlook 2020.

Key Points

• Industrial Sector:

  • Plays a pivotal role in both short-term and long-term gas demand growth.
  • Accounts for 40% of the total increase in gas demand from 2020 to 2024.

• Fuel Substitution:

  • Contributes one-third of the growth in gas demand.
  • Power generation is the main driver, especially in the substitution of coal and oil.
  • In emerging markets, fuel switching is a major factor in demand growth.

• Energy Efficiency:

  • Reduces gas demand by 80 bcm over the forecast period.
  • Mainly affects the power generation and energy sectors.
  • Efficiency gains are more pronounced in mature markets, which account for three-quarters of the efficiency-related impact.

• Policy Implications:

  • The report underscores the importance of policy measures to support a transition to low-carbon gas sources.
  • Strong and early policy actions are needed to ensure long-term sustainability and alignment with net-zero goals.

Conclusion

The global gas market is expected to recover from the 2020 downturn, with demand growing at a slower pace in the medium term. While economic activity and fuel substitution are the primary drivers, the current trajectory is not aligned with net-zero emissions goals. Policy interventions, infrastructure adjustments, and investment in cleaner gas sources are critical to achieving a sustainable future.