2025-02-09-IEA-2025年第一季度天然气市场报告（英）_84页_5mb

Gas Market Report Q1-2025 Summary

Global Demand Growth Returns

• Demand surged in 2024 to an all-time high, driven by Asia-Pacific (45% of growth) and industrial needs, with consumption projected to increase further in 2025.
• Supply fundamentals remained tight due to limited LNG output growth and geopolitical tensions, leading to price volatility.

Market Balance & Price Volatility

• Supply constraints (e.g., pipeline disruptions, project delays) and geopolitical risks (e.g., Russian gas transit halt) continue to challenge market stability.
• Asian-Europe price correlation strengthened, with TTF-JKM spreads near USD0.9/MMBtu.

Policy & Market Dynamics

• Oil-to-gas switching accelerated in the Middle East and China, supported by stricter emissions regulations.
• LNG trade volumes reached record highs, with Asia as the largest growth market. National Gas Security initiatives focus on supply chain resilience.

Low-Emissions Gases

• Biomethane & Hydrogen: Policies in the US, EU, and Asia promote low-carbon alternatives. Biomethane production rose 15%, while electrolyser capacity nearly doubled.
• IEA coordinates global efforts through projects like the Low-Emissions Gases Work Programme.

Regional Highlights

• Europe: Increased LNG imports to compensate for reduced Russian pipeline gas, supported by storage capacity. Renewables expansion pressures gas demand growth.
• Asia-Pacific: China & India lead demand growth, with policy support driving LNG and biofuel adoption.
• North America: US production growth continues, supported by new LNG exports, though tighter conditions are expected in 2025.

Outlook for 2025

• Global demand growth slows to below 2%, led by Asia (45% share of growth).
• LNG supply increases by 5%, with Europe increasing imports amid sanctions on Russian gas.
• Weather and supply disruptions remain key risks to market balance, with forward prices reflecting cautious expectations.

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