20230618-国联证券-金融工程专题_从过去经验看当前的存量博弈和投资机会_11页_521kb

Summary

• Active Excess Returns: Active funds experienced a significant decay in excess returns starting in 2022, with values such as 0.3% in 2022 and -26% by mid-2023, compared to historical norms.
• Public Fund Inflows: New fund issuance has declined, reaching levels similar to 2013. Overall new fund ratio is expected to be around 5% in 2023, down from higher rates in preceding years.
• Industry Performance: As in 2013, top-performing industries in 2023 include Media, Communication, Computer, and Electronics, with similar rankings despite minor ordering changes.
• Investment Recommendations: Emphasize balanced configurations for funds, as index funds and enhanced index funds perform better due to lower fees and diversified sectors, especially in decaying active excess returns. Target areas with low fund attention and consider AI-driven technology growth, where current valuations (e.g., CSI Technology Index PE at 6th percentile) present opportunities.
• Risk: Conclusions are based on historical data and model assumptions, which may not accurately predict future outcomes if conditions change.